EL NINO DEVELOPING, A WET SUMMER AHEAD...

Most of the dynamical models are signaling a developing El Nino in the coming months. At this point it appears weak and centered more in the central Pacific (region 3.4) which would classify it as a Modoki El Nino.

Compared to the recent El Nino of 2 winters ago, this one should be much weaker. The statistical averages currently show the El Nino reaching a base level around 1.0. That would classify it as weak.

The greatest odds of El Nino conditions (68%) are forecast in late summer. (July, August, & September)

In summers where El Nino conditions develop, there is a statistical trend for many in the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. to be wetter than normal.

Several long range models are indicating that potential as you can see below.