AN UGLY DAY ON THE WAY...
The rains have been more generous across the Midwest recently and at least for now the pattern continues promising for additional storms and precipitation. That's good for much of my area because we were one of the few spots (EC Iowa, NW Illinois, and SE Wisconsin included) that's come up short on rain this past weekend
Just look at the rainfall contrast in Iowa alone so far this month. The west has seen more than 5 times the October mean while the east has experienced about half of what it typically gets. That's a range that goes from 6.0" to 0.25".
Thus, moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions continue to exists from SE Iowa into much of S. Wisconsin, Illinois, and eastern Missouri. The outlook below issued Oct 3rd does not show the impacts of last weeks rains or what's to come today. The new outlook this Thursday should reflect improved conditions in some of the driest areas.
The next system to bring additional rain chances produced snow in Denver and the Rockies Monday. Here's some of the snow totals that were forecast over the central Rockies by the GFS through Monday.
Here's the rain and surface pattern the EURO depicts Tuesday evening at 7:00pm as the storm kicks east.
All the models indicate some good rains but there is some discrepancy on exactly where the heavier amounts will fall. The Weather Prediction Center shows this for 3 day rainfall totals around the Midwest. I'm really hoping this verifies for my area.
The same forecast just further east into Milwaukee and Chicago.
The other big factor in Tuesday's weather will be the brisk winds and chilly temperatures. The 3k NAM has lots of highs in the 40s and 50s. Easily the worst day of the fall season so far.
No need to panic about the cold. It does eject quickly and by Friday fine weather is back in the fold. Look at he mid 70s which reach into much of my local area. That's a nice recovery!
We'll follow that up with another vigorous system this weekend but I'll leave the details on hold until the current storm moves out. Roll weather...TS