THE MJO TAKES THE ROAD TO COLD...
For days the various teleconnections that I employ have all strongly indicated a dramatic pattern change next week that would bring sharply colder temperatures an improved chances for at least some snow around the Midwest. Today the EURO ensemble seasonal MJO is trying to seal the deal as it heads for the holy grail of cold in December...phases 7, 8, and 1.
If you follow the dotted green line below (the MJO forecast) you can see a fast progression through the warm phases of 5 and 6 the next few days before a slowing as it tours 7, 8, and probably 1 by the end of December. Note the temperature and precipitation analogs associated with 7 and 8. Cold with near normal precip. for my local area. Ding! That is inspiring.
Aside from the frigid look of the MJO, the other teleconnections are all in the cold camp which leads to high confidence that from December 6th on the month looks mighty fresh and frisky. THe EURO ensembles look like this for some of these key drivers. Below each you can see the analogs to December temperatures.
THE negative AO (Arctic Oscillation):
THE negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation):
The negative WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation):
The neutral NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation):
The Positive PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation):