BAH HUMBUG, A BROWN CHRISTMAS?

Two weeks until Christmas Eve and many of you have been asking the question, will there be snow? Right now the prospects in my area are not looking great. To be honest, in any given year the chances are no better than 50/50 and that's in the north. (Only 30% odds in the south). Here's an article from NOAA on the topic. The latest snow forecasts at the end.

For those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, you can find places that have the best chance of being a winter wonderland according to weather history. The “Historical Probability of a White Christmas” map shows the climatological probability of at least 1 inch of snow being on the ground on December 25 in the contiguous United States. On the map, dark gray shows places where the probability is less than 10 percent, while white shows probabilities greater than 90 percent.

Where does history say you should be in the Lower 48 for the best chance of seeing a white Christmas? Most of Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and, of course, the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Mountains all have a high probability of seeing a white Christmas. And, Aspen, Colorado, is just one of about a dozen locations boasting a 100% historical probability of seeing a white Christmas.

Snowy Climates Based on Data

This map is based on the 1981–2010 Climate Normals, which are the latest three-decade averages of several climatological measurements. This dataset contains daily and monthly Normals of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days calculated from observations at approximately 9,800 stations operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service. You can find the Climate Normals for locations near you by using NCEI’s interactive map or search tool.

Tracking U.S. Snowfall

If you would like to keep track of the snowfall across the United States on a daily basis, see the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s National Snow Analyses.

The latest odds

As I mentioned above the odds are not merry and bright with the long range guidance indicating a dry pattern and an unfavorable storm track. This morning GFS showed this for snow ending Christmas Day.

The EURO EPS mean has this for the same time frame. Slightly better but not much!

Like it or not, unless things change and do it soon, a brown Christmas could be in order. Bah humbug! Roll weather...TS