TRIPLE PLAY! SNOW, WIND, AND BITTER COLD....
A vigorous clipper will deliver a triple pronged punch of snow, wind, and bitter cold to the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. While the system is short on moisture its long on cold and wind that will blow the powdery snow that ends up falling.
The surface features look like this on the 0z GFS Sunday night at midnight. Notice the packing of the isobars to the west where a 1052mb high is approach NW Montana.
As I mentioned the clipper is lean on moisture but the dynamics will take advantage of what's available. It appears a fluffy snow ratio of 20:1 should result in 1-3" snows for much of my area. A few 4" totals are possible in the northeast but it's just a bit early to pin point where. Here's what the GFS shows for snow totals through Monday.
The NAM is similar showing these amounts.
The GEM (Canadian) has this for snow totals but only at a 10:1 ratio. If it's correct on moisture content you can add another inch to its amounts to reach the 20:1 threshold of the other models.
The EURO shows this for snowfall totals at roughly 20"1 ratios.
Here's a larger perspective of the EURO.
Based on multiple models it appears much of my area will see snow amounts on the order of 1-3" with the heaviest (2-3") northeast of a line from Waterloo to Cedar Rapids and on to the Quad Cities. There could be a few 4" amounts near and northeast of Dubuque including SW Wisconsin and extreme NW Illinois. This model from the NWS in the Quad Cities is close to what I'm thinking at the time of this post.
It is also likely that some parts of the Midwest will see winter weather advisories for snow, blowing snow and reduced visibility. As of Saturday night none have been issued but I do expect them in some areas by Sunday morning, especially with the added factor of falling temperatures Monday.
With the big Arctic high that follows the system, wind and cold are a given Monday-Wednesday. Wind chill advisories or warnings are just a matter of time. The NWS in Des Moines put this out for wind chills Monday through Wednesday in the range of 20-40 below across Iowa.
Without a doubt the weather is going to be a significant factor Sunday night through at least Tuesday. Look for snow followed by wind and bitterly cold temperatures. It's going to be a long few days. Roll weather...TS