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ON THE VERGE OF SOMETHING BIG...

Spring officially starts March 20th and if it's a typical March there's a reasonable chance we'll have a 70 degree high by the time the month ends (most certainly a 60 degree day). To that end, both the GEFS and EURO EPS ensembles are pointing at March 16th or 17th for that possibility. Here's what the 500mb jet looks like on both models around that time frame. A nice mild ridge poking into the Midwest.

The EPS

The GEFS

The EPS ensemble composed of 51 members has this for temperature anomalies Friday the 16th.

The operational run of the EURO has a pair of 56 degree highs the 15th and 16th pointing to what could be a 60 degree day the 17th.

The ensembles of the GEFS has this for temperature anomalies Friday night the 16th.

The operational run of the EURO has a 71 degree day Friday the 16th.

This early in the game I would not get caught up in the numbers (especially the GFS which could easily be inflated) but the consistency in the models leads to early confidence in a couple warm few days around March 16th That's in line with the statistics which show 15 out of the past 16 Marches in Cedar Rapids have had a 60 degree day. 9 of the 16 have had a 70 and 2 have had 80 degree temperatures.

Unfortunately, it does not appear the warmth is a long term signal. The ensemble mean of the EURO depicts well below normal heights coast to coast March 23rd.

Check out the resulting temperature anomalies. Most of the United States and Canada are well below normal...even over the Pacific. Not a very spring-like look.

This could lead to the potential of some late snow over some part of the Midwest. The EPS mean shows this for accumulation through March 22nd. Almost all of it falls after March 17th.

The EPS control which is less reliable has this.

Whatever happens, the rest of the week looks chilly and dry. Nothing really good or bad. Roll weather...TS

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© 2020 Terry Swails