HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM ON THE WAY...

The latest models remain in good agreement that a high impact winter storm is on its way to the central Midwest. Heavy snow is expected to develop Friday night and spread southeast Saturday morning. The NE half of Iowa, SW Minnesota, northern Illinois and the SW corner of Wisconsin have the greatest risk of 5-10" snow accumulations. Here's what the Weather Prediction Center shows for odds of specific amounts of 2, 4, 8, and 12".

1" or more:

4" or more:

8" or more:

12" or more:

As of late Thursday, Winter Storm Watches extend over a long stretch that extends from Minnesota to Ohio. By Friday morning much of this area will be upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.

The NWS in the Quad Cities put out this situation report out for my local area late Thursday. I think the totals will be heavier and a bit further SW based on data since the NWS put this out.

Here are some snowfall forecasts from a number of our short and mid-range models. Note that each model has a different solution for specific amounts. Even so, there is good clustering on where the general band of heavy snow sets up Friday night and Saturday.

The GFS:

The NAM:

The 3k hi-res NAM:

Las but not least, the EURO. It has taken a slight shift SW. That pushes the heavier snow band southwest by 75-100 miles. We'll see if this trend holds in the U.S. models Friday.