42 DAYS TO WINTER....SAY WHAT!
Winter doesn't officially arrive for 42 days but you would never know it today. Snow showers and gusty winds combined with temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal is a tough sell for fall. So it is when you get winds aloft that look like this...
You can see the cold air this pattern brought to the Midwest yesterday. If anything, the cold will only get deeper today as a strong upper air vortex spins southeast across the region. Very cold air aloft should also allow for scattered snow showers and wind gusts to 30 mph.
The cold high pressure will see to it that dry weather dominates the central Midwest Friday night and the majority of next week. Note the dry air building as evidenced by PWAT values (precipitable water vapor) that's next to nothing across Canada and the northern U.S.
The next 10 days will be very dry with the GFS generating precipitation totals such as this over the period. Bone dry across the heart of my area.
Cold air will continue to dominate the next 5 days. Here's the departures through Tuesday.
The 500mb flow that delivers the cold.
The dramatic change coming that modifies temperatures significantly in the mid to long range time frame. This is the 500mb flow November 19th.
The Climate Prediction Center shows the evolution of the change. First temperatures in the 6-10. Getting warmer as the cold eases east.
Now temperatures in the 8-14. The harsh cold has left the country.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are dry . Here's the precipitation forecasts.
Suffice to say, after a cold 5 day period the weather should take a turn for the better in the period leading up to Thanksgiving. After that the MJO should head for colder phases which may herald the start of real winter. Just for kicks here's the EPS weeklies depiction of snowfall through December 23rd. I would take it. Hope it has the right idea.
That's the latest and greatest for now. Enjoy the weekend despite the frisky start. Roll weather...TS