THE TIDE IS SLOWLY TURNING....
Monday's EURO Weeklies continue to point the way towards a pattern change that should make the second half of winter far different than the first. The flip is still more than a week away but from time to time hints of what's to come will sneak into the forecast. Overall, this is what temperature departures are forecast to look like between now and February 22nd (46 days). All of North America below normal!
Overall, the storm track is shown cutting across the U.S. which would be conducive to snow producing systems with the cold in place. The precise position of individual short waves is impossible to see but the weeklies are plenty bullish on snow for the northern 2/3rds of the nation. Here's the control.
And here's the mean.
Total 46 day precipitation looks like this. First the control.
Now the mean.
Here's the change in the 500 jet stream that will bring the conversion to a more wintry pattern. This is the next 7 days ending January 14th...still relatively mild by January standards.
The 7 day period ending January 28th. The western trough has flipped to a ridge.
By February 11 cold air has enveloped Canada and is pressing south into the U.S. The jet is cutting underneath which should set-up a much more active storm track.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are forecast to go strongly negative. You can see the 46 day trends as well as the associated temperature departures for January and February below. The developing negative AO.
Negative AO February
The negative NAO.
Negative NAO January.
Negative NAO February
My opinion, the tide is slowly but surely turning for winters return.
Meantime, today will see spotty rain and snow showers early before powerful winds whip across the area during the day. Winds advisories are posted over much of my region for gusts that could reach 50 mph. It is possible in spots the advisories could be upgraded to warnings.
Wednesday night wind and much colder temperatures will spread southeast. Wind chills of 0 to -10 are likely by morning. The chill holds through Thursday with highs near to below normal.
By Friday night or early Saturday some light snow is possible, especially along an south of I-80. Light accumulations are a potential worth watching. More on that in my next post. Roll weather...TS.