WINTER STORM WATCH....

A strong winter storm is on the way to the Midwest Monday afternoon through Tuesday. It will bring several inches of snow, a wintry mix in parts of the area, and strong winds. Ahead of the storm the National Weather Service has posted Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories.

There are still some uncertainties with this system. The exact track will impact snowfall amounts and where a wintry mix will be possible. Here's a look at the storm tracking through on the hi-resolution NAM, which I think has a pretty good idea of the track of the storm:

Snow will begin Monday evening and continue into early Tuesday afternoon. There will be an area of a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Here's a graphic from the NWS showing the breakdown of the precipitation type (which could still change!):

The greatest uncertainty exists near and south of I-80, as to where it concerns precipitation type and accumulations.

Let's look at all the data. Here's the snowfall totals on the GFS:

The NAM:

The hi-resolution NAM:

The Euro:

There are some minor differences, but in general pretty good agreement on the track and amounts. Here's the latest forecast from the NWS:

Wider view of Iowa:

There is also uncertainty on ice accumulations, but some minor accumulations will be possible, especially south of I-80.

Most of the Winter Storm Watch area will likely be upgraded to Warnings early Monday. Behind the snowfall there will be strong winds (gusts of 30-40 mph) and that will lead to blowing snow. There will also be a shot of cold air behind it all for the middle of the week.

RK