NOTHING COULD BE FINER, FOR NOW

Heading into the "DOG DAYS", the time of year when stagnent weather patterns loaded with heat and humidity are know to rule, our weather couldn't be finer. High pressure drifting across SW Wisconsin has been the catalyst to force a surge of unusually dry (muggy free air) into the region. Dew points which were oppressive at 76-80 Monday, have steadily been falling and today Rockford bottomed out dropping to a DPT of 42! Many spots from NW Iowa into Wisconsin and Illinois inched into the 40s.

Here in Dubuque, the 4:53am observation THursday near the center of the high pressure showed a calm wind, clear sky, temperature of 54 and a dew point of 51. You will be hard pressed to find conditions like that July 23rd. In fact, I had to close a couple windows in the middle of the night due to the chill.

To give you an idea of how rare it is to have a day this time of year with a maximum dew point in the 50s, I've produced this graphic though the Iowa Mesonet showing the odds in Dubuque July 23rd are down around 10 percent.

Here you can see the high pressure responsible for the early September weather centered near Rockford Thursday evening at 1020mb. As it advances east Friday, return flow around it will begin tapping warmer air and some moisture. The main thrust of that Friday will remain just to our south, so aside from some passing clouds and a stray sprinkle in the south, we are in for another comfortable day with highs in the upper 70s and dew points no higher than 60. Enjoy!

HEATING UP AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...

This weekend, a heat dome will expand over the SW and southern Plains. The core of the heat should remain over far western Iowa back into the Plains through Saturday. However, with time very warm air and dew points inot the 70s will inch east overspreading the region Sunday. Even worse conditions are expected Monday and when heat index values should jump from 95-100 Sunday, to potentially 105 plus in spots Monday. The EURO indicates a brutal day with some HX values of 105-110. Heat headines are a high probability.

Despite extreme CAPE levels of 6,000 j/kg., the atmosphere Monday looks highly capped with no significant forcing to break it. Thus, showers and storms appear destined to stay well to the south or north of my local area, closer to the proximity of the "ring of fire". There is some guidance that indicates a storm complex could sneak into some part of the area early next week but I've not seen anything that gives me much confidence that will happen. Tuesday afternoon or night is one of the time frames to watch as a back door front drops in from the north.

Storms or not, slightly cooler and definately less humid air should make a run at the area towards the middle of the week. As you can see the EURO shows minimal relief through the remainder of August. Even then, it's fleeting if the EURO has the right idea.

Well, it's one more for the road and then it's back to some searing summer heat Sunday and especially Monday. Get your cool game on! Roll weather...TS