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Happy Valentines Day! I'm happy to say cupid has a little gift for you today in the form of a mini thaw. You heard me right, a quick surge of warm air will fight northward today allowing temperatures to crack freezing over much of the area. The "lovely" weather won't be around long as Arctic air surges back into the area by evening along with another round of gusty NW winds.

What it all means is a manic day of weather with the EURO showing these readings at noon. Sweet!

By 6:00 pm readings are plunging into the teens and winds are gusting over 30 mph. The love has faded.

Friday morning readings are near to below zero. A heartbreaking end to the romance that was!

Winds chills are 10-20 below. A spiteful conclusion to a promising love affair. Nice try Cupid.

Following the cold comes 2 snow makers. The first passes to the south Friday dumping snow in Missouri and southern Illinois. The second takes a more northerly track and that implies snow for my area and the central Midwest Saturday night and Sunday. In the animation below you can see the 2 disturbances traveling across the heartland.

The second wave which impacts my region Sunday is a complicated one. The surface features are relatively benign but at 850 and 500mb there are hints of closed circulations that could produced an extended period of lift. This would result in a long duration light snow event which could bring a few inches of accumulation. It's too early to be precise on totals but the major models, the GFS and EURO are both showing light to moderate amounts of snow in the 2-4" range. If anything, the latest model trends show less organization with the system and lighter amounts, especially the EURO.

Here's what the latest EURO indicates.

The regional perspective of the EURO.

The GFS has this.

That's the latest and greatest. Kiss your sweetie pie for me. Roll weather...TS

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