IS IT ANY WONDER THE BIG MUDDY IS FLOODING?...
About 2 months ago I was at the North Central River District in Chanhassen, Minnesota where I discussed the potential for major spring flooding with their senior hydrologist. In an ensuing post I wrote this paragraph. Note the section highlighted in red.
I had a great day and came up with some compelling information and expert opinions. One thing I will drop on you right now is what the senior hydrologist I spoke with at the North Central River District said. Emphatically, he claimed that in all their analogs and history going back 100 years, he and his co-workers have never seen a year that compares to this one in terms of spring flood potential. They are exceptionally concerned about the Mississippi and said regarding it, " that it has many of the traits of 1965", a year that still holds crest records from Minneapolis to just north of the Quad Cities.
You can read the full article by clicking on this link: MARCH 5, SPRING FLOODING RISK NEVER BEEN HIGHER
Today the river has a chance of exceeding 1965 and 1993 as it heads for a late day crest. Is it any wonder when you look at these pictures of the snow on the ground at that time in Minnesota. These images were taken in Albert Lea, Minnesota March 5th. Scenes like this were found all across Minnesota and Wisconsin where the Mississippi's tributaries are located. Moisture content in some spots was over 8". Talk about the writing being on the wall. It's no wonder Davenport is experiencing the flooding it is today.
One of the really impressive aspects of this flood is the length of time its been going on in the Quad Cities. Wednesday will mark the 39th consecutive day the river has been above major flood stage (18 feet). That crushes the old mark of 31 days set in 2001. As you can see below, the river is expected to remain above 20 feet for at least another week so the water in downtown Davenport is not going down until well into May. The streak could very well end up pushing 50 days.
The seeds of this flood began over a year ago when widespread heavy precipitation fell across most of the Midwest. 2018 in Waterloo was the all time wettest year with 54.15". In Iowa City it was number 2, Dubuque number 6, and Cedar Rapids number 9.
You can see over the past 365 days how much as fallen with a bullseye right over my area.
During that 365 day period some of the region has experienced nearly twice its normal precipitation.
The EURO weeklies continue to point towards a wet pattern well into June. This is the EPS 46 day mean rainfall forecast. Soggy times ahead if this verifies. It also means the threat of flooding is still on the table if we get into one of those set-ups with repeated rounds of heavy thunderstorms over multiple days.
If nothing else, the next few days look better without the threat of more significant rains. Temperatures should also warm and by late week highs will be back around 70. In closing, to all my friends and followers in the Quad Cities, my thoughts are with you as you deal with what truly is the mighty Mississippi on steroids. Roll weather....TS
