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The flakes are flying to the north of me early Wednesday thanks to a storm that's known as a clipper. They are notorious for being fast movers with narrow bands of light to moderate snow. This one is no exception and it will whiten up southern Minnesota and Wisconsin along with NE Iowa. These are the odds of any one location seeing an inch of snow. Where odds are 80-100 percent, totals of 2-5 inches are expected.

Behind this system another stout punch of cold air overspreads the Midwest to close out the week Thursday and Friday. After a some moderation Saturday, the front that will really get your attention zings the region Sunday-Wednesday. That air mass harbors true early season Arctic air and we'll get a premature taste of January thanks to its wintry attributes.

This is the 500mb jet stream flow Monday that delivers the punch. Look at that cross-polar flow. Yikes!

Here's the 5 day temperature departures associated with the deep trough Monday through Saturday (November 11-16).

The coldest single day looks to be the 12th when departures are as much as 33 degrees F. below normal. That's about as large as you see around here.

On the 12th itself, the CIPs analog guidance shows a 100 percent chance of below normal temps. Now that's what I call a sure bet.

To obtain the odds CIPs take the top historical analogs that are similar to this event and comes up with a mean solution. These are the top 10 Midwest analogs to this cold outbreak.




1988 (twice)






If you are interested these are the mean 500mb jet stream tracks with for the analog years just mentioned. Note all originate in southwest Canada pointing to the strong NW flow required to get so much early season cold into the pattern.

The analogs also show a 100 percent chance of temperatures below 20 degrees in my area.

A 90 to 100 percent chance of colder than 15 degrees.

And an 85 to 95 percent chance in my area wind chills will reach zero or colder.

If you are playing the odds they are very much in favor of near record cold early next week. Even if you're not a gambler, a 1050 high in early November is a trump card to play

Now when it comes to precipitation, I don't see much of that after the clipper. The NW flow will dramatically limit moisture. There may be a little bit Saturday night Sunday, especially up north with the Arctic front. After it passes the very cold air aloft will likely generate some snow showers or flurries early next week but no major storms are showing at this time. This is what the GFS is showing for 16 day precipitation out to November 21st.

Look at the 16 day precip. departures. This would be one of the driest stretches for parts of my area in over 2 months.

Some other positive news to pass along is the fact the pattern looks to relax a bit after November 15th and that should bring at least a more seasonal brand of weather back to the Midwest. More on that trend tomorrow. Roll weather...TS

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