© 2019 Terry Swails

WHERE FOR ART THOU SUNSHINE...

November 19, 2019

A  tip of my hat to all of you who have put your faith and trust in my forecasts over the years.It's made me a better weatherman and given me a purpose, especially now that the TV world has no place for an old dog like me. To be honest, it's nice to be in control of my own destiny.

 

That said, to make it on my own I'm still asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going.Together we can (and we are) creating one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. Your support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.

YOUR MID-DAY UPDATE

 

It's been a cool dreary morning over much of my area. The showers that fell in the east (mixed with a bit of snow up north) have come to an end. Clearing is even trying to make a run at my western counties. This is expected to to struggle moving east so outside of a few breaks for sunshine in the west, the clouds should hang tough in most areas the rest of the day.

Where the sun is out temperatures are warming nicely out west. These are the noon temperatures. Its toasty in the southern Plains!

Wednesday energy from a western trough sends a weather system towards the Midwest. You can see the disturbance today getting set to move into the Southwest.

Ahead of it, the warm air that's to the west today makes a push into the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Despite plenty of clouds highs Wednesday should make into the 40s and 50s, coolest over the NE half.

Thursday a dry slot might even get the area south of I-80 close to 60.

 

Unfortunately, there will be some rain Wednesday night and parts of Thursday that accompanies the warmer weather. With the track of the system over eastern Iowa the heaviest amounts should be northwest of the low. This is what the GFS shows for rain totals.

By Friday we dry out but cool down as the system departs.to the northeast. However, the pattern remains active and by Thanksgiving week wet weather returns with a couple more storms, one that looks pretty healthy just before Turkey day.

 

The 16 day precipitation forecast off the GFS is still hefty.

The departures for the 16 day period are significant for this time of year.

I'll get into the specifics of the long range forecast for the holiday week in my next post. For now, that's a wrap. Roll weather...TS

 

Don't forget to register for WEATHER SCHOOL!

 

TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity for you to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the country along with his team of expert meteorologists.

 

That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can.  He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school.  There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over

 

You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools?  DONE!  You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE!  You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.

 

Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.

 

The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $ 99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

 

GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!

 

 

WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:

 

WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

 

Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.

 

Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION

The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

 

Session 2: ANALYSIS:

Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.

 

Model options and choices. What to use and when!

The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.

Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.

 

The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!

 

Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:

Surface and upper air data

Vorticity and energy

Precipitation output

Wind and pressure

 

Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE

A simulation of the basic process using model output.

 

BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…

 

Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:

Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.

Soundings. What are they and why should I care?

Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.

Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.

TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.

Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.

Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak

 

Session 5: WINTER STORMS:

The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:

How to forecast the rain snow line.

How to forecast snow totals from QPF

Determining totals from snow ratios.

What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)

Model bias and determining the storm track

Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm

 

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.

 

CONCLUSION:

Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners

 

Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com See you when the bell rings! T. Swails

 

 

 

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