THE LAMBS OF DECEMBER....
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TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST:
December got off to a lousy start around the Midwest with plenty of crummy weather from wind, to rain, and snow...especially to the north. The heavy snow up that way really brought the seasonal totals to impressive levels going into the 2nd day of December. Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin have had 12 to 30 inches plus. While my area hasn't seen much the last 3 weeks, we too are still 6-10" above normal.
These were snow depths reported Monday morning. It's plenty white in the northland!
This satellite image clearly shows the snow line just out of my local area.
From the looks of things, there won't be much of any precipitation (rain or snow) the next 7 days. The lambs of December will be with us into the coming weekend. The EURO ensembles have this for total precipitation through Sunday. Zip, nada, none!
This is snowfall for the same period. Zip, nada, none!
Beyond the 10 day period things get side-tracked, especially with regard to the GFS solution. It brings a powerful Arctic front across the Midwest December 10th with some eye popping cold and wind chills.
The 5 day temperature departures on the GFS ensembles are frosty December 11-16.
The operational GFS is even colder for the same period.
The EURO was not having any of that earlier today with a morning run that looked like this for departures December 11-16th.
The night run (0Z) was quite different. I don't have it far enough out to show the 5 day departures but the one day anomaly for December 12th is a good indicator this is a much colder run!
The Climate Prediction Center is riding a different train and showing this. That looks way off base.
As you can see we have an important trend towards colder weather in the long range if the models hold. About 9 days ago the GFS did a similar thing and I took a chance on it based on some favorable teleconnections for cold. I had to back off a few days later as the model flipped. Now it's trying to go cold again and so is the EURO. With a tendency to be warm biased, this is a big change in direction for the EURO. It certainly lends confidence to a colder weather pattern around December 10th.
Meantime, watch out for the sheep of December, they are roaming the countryside bringing peaceful weather and goodwill to all, at least through the weekend. Roll weather...TS
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