STREAKY SNOW BAND TONIGHT...
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TUESDAY'S MID-DAY UPDATE:
A sneaky streaky clipper is aimed at the central parts of my area later tonight and very early Wednesday morning. The disturbance is a fast mover and shearing out as it passes. That means a weak system with limited moisture and only a short period of snow producing lift. The energy is also channeled meaning a very narrow band of snow up to 50 miles wide. The only thing the system has going for it is cold temperatures which means snow ratios will be high up around 15:1. That simply means a powdery snow that will fluff up nicely where it falls. It also means there will be some snow covered roads where the main band sets up.
With regards to the snow band, it still appears the axis of heavier snow is lining up from Fort Dodge to Cedar Rapids and on to the Quad Cities. Along and near that line totals of an inch can be expected with some locally higher totals in a few spots that could push 2 inches. I don't expect many amounts to reach the 2" mark (if any) but that is the high end range.
Notice too how my northern and southern counties see no snow at all. You are in or you are out with this streaky little system. Here's the latest model forecasts for snow which does not get going until well after midnight. It's out by 9:00 am in all areas.
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
All things considered this is a very minor system that will impact a relatively small area as it speeds southeast. More of a nuisance than anything else.
After this moves out models are really at odds with snow potential the next 10 days. Pure chaos for sure. The EURO has this for total snow out to the morning of December 20th.
The GFS shows this for the same period.
That's about as opposite as you can get. Most likely the EURO wins out but you never know. Even a blind dog finds a bone once in awhile! I'll see if I can get some better consistency in tonight's runs. Personally, i kind of doubt it. Models have been doing this sort of thing much of the past 2 weeks. They are really struggling with the pattern and that means a low confidence forecast until further notice. Roll weather...TS
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WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
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