In a holiday week dominated by warmth, there's more to come. A strong winter storm will spin up over western Iowa the next 24 hours sending warm and unseasonable mild air back into the central Midwest. The leading edge of the springlike air will be surging northward Saturday along a warm front. It will take most of the day to get past I-80 so a large temperature contrast is expected from north to south in my area. Here are the highs forecast on the GFS. towards evening, near 40 north to mid 50s far south.

As the storm and warm front continues progressing north Saturday night, so too does the warm air. Rising temperatures are likely with brisk south winds and by Sunday morning the GFS shows all of my area in the 50s with readings near 60 in southeast Iowa and WC Illinois.

As you can see temperatures like that are more than 35 degrees above normal.

Along with the warmth will come plenty of moisture as measured by the dew points that could reach the mid 50s all the way to HWY 30.

That will be the fuel for showers and thunderstorms that will develop Saturday and be around on an occasional basis until the cold front passes from west to east towards daybreak Sunday. Both the EURO and GFS show the potential for up to an inch of rain (at the very least 1/2").



The snowy side of the storm will be significant but far away from where it typically should be with the limited amount of cold air in place.

As is usually the case a storm of this scope will come to an end with wind and colder temperatures. That process gets underway Sunday afternoon with falling readings and by Monday much more seasonal conditions are expected with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.

After this models are showing little agreement in the pattern but there are a couple disturbances that could bring precipitation (perhaps some snow). The first involves the northern half of my area (north of I-80) Monday night. It's nothing huge but perhaps an inch or two could fall, especially near and north of HWY 20. This is what the EURO has for snow potential Monday night.

The EURO shows another chance of snow towards the 5th or 6th. The GFS is showing little if anything regarding development with that system. Thus, confidence is low after New Years.

At any rate, there are lots of tentacles to the forecast and once we get through the weekend rain maker we'll dial in on what's to come. Roll weather...TS

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The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

Session 2: ANALYSIS: