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A rather complex winter weather event is setting up that will bring a prolonged period of snow to the area starting Wednesday that continues on an occasional basis into Friday. The first wave is not much more than warm advection as southerly winds pull warm moist air back into the cold we've seen since Saturday. That has the potential to bring 1-2" of snow (some models show 3"), especially to the area west of the Mississippi. A bit lighter to the east.

After a lull in the snow, the more influential system comes in the form of a closed upper air low Thursday night and Friday. The warm conveyor belt around that should increase lift once again and generate a secondary band of snow over much of my area. This disturbance has the potential to drop another 2-4". Still some minor issues with the track and the final placement will determine who gets the worst of it.

While snow is in the forecast Wednesday through Friday, it likely won't snow all the time. There should be periods where drizzle or flurries is about all it amounts to. During the other periods discussed, light to moderate amounts are possible and that's when most of the accumulations are expected.

Since temperatures will be close to freezing Wednesday through Friday night (30-34 degrees) and winds will be light, I don't think this will have anywhere the impact of the last weeks storm. In fact, the NWS may not ever put out watches or warnings as accumulations take place over a long period of time with temperatures that allow it to melt and settle, especially on treated surfaces.

These are the raw snowfall forecasts off the models and are the totals from both periods of snow.

The EURO ensembles 10:1 ratio

The GFS ensembles 10:1


That is where things stand right now. Snow does not begin in most areas until late morning west and early afternoon east. The last flakes don't end until late Friday afternoon or evening. Stay tuned and roll weather...TS

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