As you all know from my last post I'm conflicted about this next storm and its snow potential. My big concern is that it would pull the same stunt as others and there are some signs that may be the case. I'm talking about phasing and in this case the lack of it. Without that element in play it allows for a weaker storm which produces a track further southeast. There's still snow, it just moves the heaviest to a different place.
This mornings model runs almost all show at least 3" of snow southeast of a line from Ottumwa to Cedar Rapids all the way to Dubuque. However, the one model I would like to see do it is the EURO and it's much different, further southeast. Here's what it shows for snow and it may be showing us the way.
Notice how much it's changed. Just 18 hours ago it looked like this.That's going the wrong way for snow in my neck of the woods.
On the other end of the spectrum, all the other models I'm putting up below are still showing more phasing and thus more snow back into eastern Iowa. Here's what they look like. Quite a difference from the new EURO.
The 12K NAM
The 3k NAM
I'm out on a limb here but I suspect based on persistence of the pattern this winter and the ability of the EURO to be out in front of changes, that it's lighter look is the way to go, especially in eastern Iowa. And speaking of that, if the EURO goes any further southeast in the next couple runs that will take most of the snow out of eastern Iowa and NW Illinois altogether.
What I'm saying is 5 models are against me and one for. Maybe I'm out to lunch but my gut tells me this won't be as significant over much of my area as most models are showing when it's all said and done, that is unless you are closer to the Mississippi and points southeast. I am leaning more towards the EURO and its lighter accumulations. Maybe it ends up being more if a compromise between it and the others. One thing is for sure, a little movement either way in future runs will have implications by adding an inch or more or taking this to the null phase in eastern Iowa. I will have to watch the trends the rest of the day and will let you know where things are going in later updates.
One thing that will happen is much colder arctic air will hit Wednesday night along with strong NW winds up to 30. What snow falls tomorrow begins in the south late afternoon and progresses north into the early evening. It produces most of what accumulates by midnight.
Temperatures will be near or even a couple degrees above freezing Wednesday. However, when precip starts evaporative cooling will quickly get it back to 30 to 32. Then the arctic front hits in my western counties by midnight Wednesday and the winds crank up and temps rapidly fall as the front streaks towards Illinois by 3am. Lows around Waterloo will be near 5 below Thursday morning but closer to 10 in the QCA (although still falling). The cold air will continue to produce scattered snow showers or flurries into the morning Thursday but not much more than a dusting is likely after daybreaks. There will be some blowing snow where there is some snow to kick around or snow showers to be found. Wind chills by daybreak will range from 30 below in Waterloo to 10 below in the QCA. This is a mean old shot of cold air but fortunately it only sticks around for a couple days.
There are still some things to work out here and this could still go either way but at least for now I feel the lighter side may be the way things are trending, especially in much of eastern Iowa and NW Illinois. I think the best chances of 2" or more are southeast of a line from Centerville, Iowa to the Quad Cities and up to DeKalb. More to come. For now, roll weather...TS