SOME BIG TICKET WEATHER ON THE TABLE...

February 12, 2020

This Valentines Day weekend you will "love" the President's Day specials going on at Chestnut Mountain Resort in Galena. There's something for everybody and that includes plenty of snow. There's currently a 42-68" base and with the potential for more natural snow on the way mid-week, there's never been a better time to plan a trip to the Midwest's Premier Year Round Resort.

 

WEDNESDAY'S FEATURE POST:

 

There's some big ticket weather on the table the next 48 hours as three ingredients combine to produce a nasty winter cocktail. I'm talking about snow, arctic air, and bitter wind chills. Lets get after it.

 

SNOW

The snow aspect of the storm wont be all that big in my area. For most of my region in Iowa 1-2" totals are expected. perhaps 3-4" down in the far southeast near Burlington, Ft. Madison, and Keokuk. From the Quad Cities southeast 2-3" totals are likely with a couple of my counties down near Macomb, Galesburg and over to Princeton in that 3-5" category...probably more like 4. The snow does not get going until afternoon and it will take much of the day for it to reach my northern counties.

 

With temperatures initially near freezing the snow starts wet but with time gets progressively drier as cold air gets pulled into the system. With occasional snow and snow showers much of Wednesday night and into early Thursday there will be enough powder for blowing snow to develop along the advancing arctic front.. Here's the raw snowfall forecast as of lateTuesday night. Overall, pretty good consistency.

 

The EURO

 The GFS

 The GEM

 The 3k NAM

 The 12K NAM

FRIGID AIR

The arctic front hits my western counties toward mid evening Wednesday and quickly streaks southeast hitting the Mississippi by midnight. Temperatures will rapidly fall and by Thursday morning the GFS shows lows in my area ranging from 15 below to 10 above in the southeast

Wind chills will be serious and warnings and advisories are likely with some wind chills in NC Iowa shown as lows as 45 below. Most of my area 15-30 below zero!

Friday morning lows could be in that 10-20 below range with fresh snow cover and much lighter winds.

THE WINDS

The arctic air will generate steep lapse rates and plenty of wind. 10 meter gusts just above the surface show speeds of 30-40 mph. With the intense cold squeezing out moisture snow squalls are possible that combined with the winds could create blowing snow sharply reducing visibility at times, particularly in the open country. Anybody traveling Wednesday night needs to be properly prepared for the cold, especially in my northwest counties where the cold could be deadly for anybody exposed for only a short period of time. Highs on Thursday won't get above zero in my NW counties. 

 

So there you have it, winters worst elements combining to create some nasty times starting Wednesday night through Friday morning. On a positive note, temperatures should be back around freezing Saturday making for a quick recovery! Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails