LOOKING LIKE A WET ROAD AHEAD...
Monday was another chilly day with well below normal highs following Sunday's snow system in the southern half of my area. In case you missed it, the heaviest snows (2-4') fell around the Quad City metro area. Way to go dudes!
Here's a closer look at snow totals in my immediate area.
Where snow was on the ground, at least into the morning Monday, temperatures were slow to rise and at mid-day looked like this.
In some locations readings ended up 10-12 degrees below average. Normal highs now range from 48-53 around my area.
All things considered the next 7 days (through the weekend) don't look all that great. A number of weather disturbances will roll across the region with clouds, and occasional periods of wet weather. Rain totals in my are appear on the light side until the weekend when a much stronger storm takes aim on the area.
Early indications are that the weekend disturbance will be one of those classic March systems that intensifies into a strong storm with a deep surface low and impressive upper air energy. There are big differences in track that will have implications on temperatures, precipitation amounts, and perhaps even precipitation type for those north of the cyclone. Here's the EURO with a 985mb surface low in central Iowa.
The GFS on the other hand is positioned just north of St. Louis with a pressure of 997 mb. The southern track of the GFS would be much cooler with minimal chances for thunder this far north.
I assume the EURO will win the battle of track and as such bring that big boy right up over Iowa. If so the heaviest precipitation in the deformation band would remain to my NW. Even so, moderate to perhaps "locally" heavy rain would still be possible with embedded t/storms, especially Friday night . Here's the totals on the EURO for the storm. You can see the split in the heavy bands NW and SE as the low comes through Iowa with its attending dry slot. This appears reasonable to me.
The GFS on the other hand is no doubt too far south and that contaminates its precipitation totals. It puts the northern precipitation swath (deformation band) directly over my area with some 2 to nearly 3" rain totals. This solution brings at least another inch more than the EURO and I am darn sure its not going to happen.
Even with its "less wet" solution the EURO available water vapor (PWAT's) is quite high, especially in central Illinois at 1.83".
That's more than 3 times the norm. It's pretty much a given that this will be a formidable storm and much of the Midwest will get a good soaking.
On a positive note, cold air will be limited until after the big storm passes so snowfall is not likely to be a concern this far south. The EURO shows this for snow totals.
However this all plays out, we've got a cool dry day to deal with Tuesday before what looks to be be regular chances of rain Wednesday night through Saturday. Ahhh, spring in the Midwest. Roll weather and keep practicing those social distancing skills...TS
