STORMS SUNDAY FOR SOME...
There's no denying it -- we need rain! There is a chance Sunday and Monday for rain, but there are some disagreements on how it happens. First let's talk about the continued heat on Sunday.
Temperatures will be back in the 80s to near 90 degrees in the afternoon -
Humidity will be high once again. Oof did summer come back in with a vengeance...
The hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat index values near and above 100 degrees.
The heat + humidity = plenty of instability and moisture for showers and storms. Which we need. What's been missing lately is the trigger for storms (a front or a boundary). Here's a look at the instability (energy necessary for thunderstorms) on Sunday:
Plenty of it! Now as a result the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather in parts of the Upper Midwest.
There is some disagreements on when exactly rain arrives and how widespread it is, but there will be a chance of storms Sunday afternoon and evening.
Here's a look at the difference in the models. The latest Hi-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model:
Then a look at the latest hi-resolution NAM model:
So quite the difference there but any storms that do develop will be capable of some strong winds, hail, and heavy rain.
This won't fix the dry and drought conditions in the area but it's a start! RK