A GOOD-OLE WEATHER TRAFFIC JAM

If you're enjoying this late-year warmth well you are in luck, it's going nowhere anytime soon as the weather is stuck in a bit of a traffic jam. A blocking pattern has set up along the East Coast of the United States which is preventing weather patterns from moving east-to-west.

 This is due to a strong High pressure over the northeast, and the combination of Imelda and Humberto off the southeast coast creating a Rex Block. Until this pattern really breaks down there will not be a lot of change in the weather for the Midwest over the next week, or more.

By Friday morning you can see the strong High continuing over the Northeast with weaker pressure over Florida and the Bahamas region. This continues to linger until it gets a bit of a shove. Last week I discussed how Typhoons in the Pacific Ocean could translate into more disruptive weather over the CONUS - that very well may be the spark needed to kick out this block.

The European Ensemble control shows a stronger trough in the jet stream approaching early next week - this might be what it takes to start breaking down the heat, the dry weather and the overall blocking pattern. This has ties to the tropical Pacific and the dual typhoons well to the west.

Ahead of this trough, analogs continue to indicate very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the entire central United States. Early October is 80%+ likely to be on the warmer side of normal.

The warmth won't necessarily be by a small value either - analogs are 10-15° above normal which translates into temperatures into the 80s across a huge area. Remarkable warm continues for at least the next 7-10 days, although records should be safe for the time being. Farther northwest in western Iowa, the Dakotas and Minnesota will have chances to break records Monday through Friday.

When the pattern finally breaks down it will likely come with some unsettled weather. Current GEFS indications are showing wetter-than-normal conditions Oct. 6-13. With that said, "when in drought, have some doubt." It is entirely possible the worsening drought conditions could put a lid on just how active things get. We will be ever vigilant on this period through as it at least gives us something to look forward to other than hot and dry conditions.

Speaking of the heat, here is an extended outlook for the Quad Cities region - temperatures continue to reside in the mid/upper 80s for quite some time before the pattern looks to finally break down early next week.

European Ensembles are starting to show that more active stretch of weather around Oct. 6-10 around the Quad Cities, however notice that not all members are as robust with the rain totals, so confidence is somewhat limited at this point in time.

Meanwhile here in Florida the outer bands of Tropical Storm Imelda made grilling a bit of a challenge today! Mission was accomplished, however, with chicken and brats served just in time to watch my Chicago Bears somehow pull out a victory - I forgot what it felt like to win a close game. Have a great week friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart