A STORMY MONDAY FOR SOME, LIKELY NOT ALL

Severe weather continues to be a watch item Monday across the Midwest, however the forecast is a little complicated with some modeling backing off the widespread storm threat previously advertised. A Level 3 of 5 Risk, an Enhanced Risk, extends across Iowa, northwest Illinois, southeast Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. The primary concern is damaging wind gusts.

Of note, a lot of vulnerable people are in Oshkosh this week. Make sure to watch the forecast closely and react to watches and warnings.

The ensemble forecast is indicating the highest potential of storms Monday may be more east/northeast of our area in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some models really don't have much at all in Iowa where a large severe weather risk area is in place.

The HRRR

The latest HRRR has isolated storms across Wisconsin, and an isolated storm in central Iowa. Storm at this point do not appear to be widespread. This is backed up by pretty much every other high resolution model run Sunday afternoon.

The RRFS

The RRFS is pretty similar with storms mainly in Wisconsin and pushing into northern Illinois (moving southeast) Monday evening. Really not much at all is being indicated in Iowa - an interesting trend to say the least. I do have a theory as to why the models have backed off a bit locally.

3km NAM

The 3km NAM is a little more scatter with storms instead of isolated. This model does bring a little more action into eastern Iowa.

Persistent wildfire smoke may be impacting the thermodynamics across Iowa along the leading edge of the upper air disturbance that will be responsible for storms. Smoke can limit daytime heating, preventing convective temperatures from being reached and limiting the instability. It's possible that might be what is impacting some of the potential storm forecasts.

The environment is forecast to be loaded that is for sure. Instability will likely be pushing 3500-4000j/kg across much of Iowa with bulk wind shear around 40-50kts. Any storm that does form will likely be severe quickly with damaging wind gusts and large hail likely. A few tornadoes will also be possible.

It's really just a question if we do see storms. Either way, I think this is a scenario where not everyone in the risk area will see storms, but some will and they could be quite strong.

We will watch the forecast and trends through the day tomorrow closely.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart