I SEE CRACKS IN THE WALL...

The beat goes on for our amazing October weather featuring daily high departures averaging 7 to 11 degrees above normal. The average daily high at the Quad City International Airport in Moline through the 26th is 73.6 degrees. That's 7.6 degrees above normal per day!

While much of the Midwest has experienced below normal precipitation the southeast half of my area was near to above average, thanks largely to a wet system that clipped that area earlier in the month. One other narrow band of wet weather ran from Omaha to Ames and on to McGregor in the northeast.

Tuesday will be the 11th consecutive day without measurable rain in Dubuque and the remainder of my local area. The monthly total in Dubuque is just 1.13 inches (1.36 inches short of the norm). Only 4 of the months 27 days counting Tuesday have experienced measurable rain. That is remarkable, very hard to do.

IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE IT COMES CRUMBLING DOWN

To continue on with such exceptionally nice weather with November fast approaching would be a significant feat. And, sure enough todays data not only shows wetter weather, it implies a period of much colder temperatures centered around a strong rain maker that swirls across the Midwest November 2nd through the 5th. Both the GFS and EURO are similar in their depiction of the storm which is heartening in that it brings decent early confidence to the event.

To be honest, this change was well teleconnected a week ago, but has taken the deterministic models this long to latch onto the trend. Assuming they hold going forward, the upper level 500mb pattern is shown evolving into a strong closed low that drops into the Midwest beginning November 2nd. It looks like this on the GFS.

If indeed anything close to that strenght materializes it will be a gamebreaker for dry weather and mild temperatures. While the system is still at least 6 days away, both the GFS and EURO are quite consistent with the phasing which during El Nino's is a known modle problem. This is the one caveat that give me pause from saying this is a high confidence event, but I'm willing to go moderate for the time being.

Currently, both the GFS and EURO are cranking out impressive rain totals in the 2-5 inch range for much of the Midwest. It occurs over a period of 2-3 days. Here's the latest numbers.

The GFS

The EURO

Here are the 5 day rainfall departures for the period November 1st through the 5th. That's a real soaker by November standards!

Moving on to the temperatures, the meteogram of the deterministic GFS drops a bomb with highs crashing to 38 in the Quad Cities November 6th. After a slight rebound, a secondary surge of cold air has readings back down to 41 the 11th.

The ensemble of the GFS, multiple runs compared to the single run of the determinisitic GFS are not as cold due to some members still not tightly clustered on the eventual strength of the storm. Still, the resulting drop is a reality check of what November should bring more and more of as the month unfolds.

Another factor that would need to be addressed with such a strong system is wind. The GFS solution shows gusts of 40-50 mph over the entire central Midwest with a max of 60.6 mph.

Last but not least, this is the type of system that could open the door to snow over some part of the Midwest. Without cold air in place initially this looks to mainly be a rainmaker locally. That may not be the case further north where snow could add up to several inches in spots.

This is important to note. At this juncture you never want to put the cart before the horse. I know full well things can and will change some. Phasing is the issue that concerns me the most. However, there are many factors that could lead to a storm of this magnitude, not the least of which is the energy available and the time of year. Could it be the gales of November I hear calling? The next 48 hours should give us a pretty good idea if this thing is the player it's shown to be tonight. For now, I see cracks in the wall around us. Roll weather...TS