NOVEMBER RAIN...

Considering it's rained on just 4 of the past 28 October days here in Dubuque, you know the odds are strong that raindrops will find us sooner rather than later. Before it finally arrives though, we should run our current streak of dry weather locally to 12 consecutive days Wednesday, with showers holding off until after midnight. On average, the rule of thumb is you can expect measurable rain to fall about once every 3 days. Clearly, we are overdue.

The next rain chance, (nothing significant) arrives later Wednesday night before departing the area again early Thursday. At the very best, some amounts up to 1/10th of an inch are possible but in reality, amounts of .05" or less are a more likely outcome. Just enough to wash the dirt and dust of the pumpkins.

2 other disturbances are destined to follow that. The first along a warm front Friday afternoon and evening and the second Saturday night or Sunday depending on your model of choice. The best chance of something meaningful comes Friday night when the EURO shows enough CAPE for scattered thunderstorms and the heavier rain they are capable of producing. For the three individual events, the National Model Blend shows this for potential amounts.

The EURO ensemble with its greater threat of instability has higher amounts, especially in the NW half of my area.

During this first unsettled period, highs will ramain well above normal through the weekend, with upper 60s to low 70s on the table Wednesday and Thursday before a slow decline.

THE MAIN SHOW...

These first series of rain events should grease the skids for what appears to be a much larger system that arrives November 1st or 2nd. The ensemble mean of the EURO (51 members) shows the primary low in SC Kansas Monday night with a secondary low over EC Iowa.

At noon Tuesday, the surface low is centered over NC Missouri with a wind driven rain shield surging into Iowa and WC Illinois. The slow persistent nature of the system should keep rain around for 2-3 days.

THe ensemble mean of the EURO shows widespread 2 inch rains across the region.

The GFS ensemble mean is further south and somewhat lighter with the storms rainfall output. Still a good soaker!

With the tight pressure gradient out of the E/SE, wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are indicated over much of the central Midwest. A peak gust of 60.8 mph is shown over SW Lake Michigan.

Initially the storm arrives with minimal cold air by November standards which should keep temperatures around 55 to 60 Monday through Thursday (November 2nd through the 4th). After that, the cold core of the system spins in highs that hold in the 40s to low 50s. A secondary surge of cold air is possible by November 12th that could deliver some 30s but confidence is low on temperatures at that distance. The GFS has this.

As you can see, the turn to colder weather is tied to the slow movement of the early November storm. However, once it gets east the coldest temperatures of the season look to be a good bet, especially since we really haven't experienced anything worse than a couple days in the 50s.

In the end, how much rain the storm delivers will be determined by how much phasing takes place and where. We still seem to be in a favorable spot for some wet, windy, and raw conditions come next week. More to come.

Meantime, we continue on with another warm dry day Wednesday. Savor the results. Roll weather...TS