A TOASTY TUESDAY...
It was a near perfect 4th of July weekend but since it began last Friday temperatures and humidity levels have been slowly increasing and we are now in the thick of the soup. Tuesday should see no major changes and it will be a torrid Tuesday with highs low 90s and dew points up around 70. That should be heat Index values into the mid 90s. It will be a very warm day.
While we're baking notice the cool air up north Tuesday afternoon. That's where a front is located and it will become a player on Wednesday.
That's the day it finally gets close enough to bring the threat of scattered showers and storms along with a cooler and less humid brand of weather. These are the 24 hour changes in temperatures that the EURO suggests for Wednesday afternoon after the passage of the front. Readings by 4:00 PM could be down by as much as 20 degrees in my northern counties. More like 10-15 degrees in the south.
It will take a little longer for dew points to drop but they will Wednesday night. By Thursday they hover in the upper 50s and with highs around 80 it should be a delightful day.
The most challenging aspect of the short term forecast is whether of nor we can squeeze some rain out with the arrival of the cooler air. The front passes in the north early in the day which is not optimal for instability and widespread storms. There could be a few up that way but should fizzle. Later in the day new storms are possible in the south with daytime heating. However, the speed of the front will be critical as to who gets into the game. To me the far south is most favored (HWY 34 south) unless the front slows in further runs. No way to know on that just yet.
Friday and into the weekend will be out best opportunity to see more widespread rains. An upper air low is projected to cut-off and meander through the weekend. The energy looks like this at 500 mb Sunday.
The upper air low will provide the forcing for occasional showers and storms into Monday. Where the center resides and decides to track will determine where the greatest rain potential exists. Confidence is low on the placement this early in the game. However, both the GFS and EURO are kicking out some welcome amounts. The recent warm dry weather is tapping into top soil moisture once again so most areas could use some rain. Here's what the EURO shows Friday-Monday.
The GFS has this for the same time period.
The set-up also has the makings of a severe weather producer in some part of the region. Models are pointing at decent shear along a warm front. Instability and CAPE make a good push into southern Iowa. The ingredients are there for strong to severe storms near that boundary late Friday afternoon and evening. Eventually this could grow upscale into an MCS with a continued threat of strong winds and heavy rain Friday night. The southern half of my area is most favored if current model trends hold. This is going to be a real focus of the forecast going forward. Interesting stuff.
EXTREME WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS
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