A WEEK WITH TWO DIFFERENT FRONTS

One week. Two cold fronts.

It's a bit of an interesting week as we start off rather chilly with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s before we end the week with highs in the 80s. Between now and then we are watching two separate cold fronts that have a very different environment to work with. The first, Tuesday, will have limited moisture supply while a second around Friday will have more moisture and upper level support that could warrant a potential severe weather threat.

The HRRR (above) shows a few lights showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday on and off through the day. As mentioned earlier, the overall moisture supply is limited so rainfall is expected to be pretty limited. I would not be expected if much of the rain actually evaporates before reaching the ground due to dry air near the surface.

Forecast soundings Tuesday afternoon show an "inverted V" profile - low moisture in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere as rain is indicated in the models. Low-level relative humidity is forecast to be sub-40% - dry! This could cause some strong winds mixing down to the surface both ahead of the front and behind the cold front. Downfraft CAPE is near 500 which is a pretty good baseline. I would not be surprised to see some severe gusts at times due to this pofile.

TUESDAY MORNING WIND GUSTS

TUESDAY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS

Even without the downdrafts caused by evaporative rain showers, the overall environment will be supportive of widespread gusts topping 40mph at times. This may even warrant an elevated fire threat due to the low humidity and strong gusts.

Wednesday and Thursday, behind the first cold front, temperatures will drop into the low 70s for highs once again. But the model blend continues to show a steady warmup by next weekend and into next week with several days in the 80s expected. The warming trend is coming!

Ahead of the next front Friday, moisture levels will actually be high enough to warrant some meaningful accumulation. PWATs could push 1.5" which isn't overly impressive, but seasonal for the time of year.

The higher moisture may also generate enough instability for a strong thunderstorm or two on Friday. Again, it's not overly impressive but enough to keep an eye on. Timing of the cold front passing through the region will also have implications on the severe weather potential and the area at risk.

Maching learning forecasts are slowly catching onto a potential for a strong storm or two in the region. This may increase as model guidance gets more in line and confidence grows. No formal risk area is currently in place by the Storm Prediction Center at this time.

I hope all the mothers out there had a wondeful Mother's Day Sunday. I am very thankful I was able to make a unplanned trip home to Chicago this weekend! My love of weather and science has A LOT to do with her and I am forever thankful. We also got to watch a lot of Castle and Psych - some of our favorite shows.

Have a wonderful week friends. I will try and provide a few updates through the week as Terry continues to be on the mend.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart