AN ACTIVE WEEK IS FINALLY HERE

Here we go! After a lot of chatter for the better part of a week we are finally entering the active period that should bring some nice relief from the dry conditions. Latest seven-day precipitation forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center has a large area of 2-3" across our area as multiple storm systems are set to bring some beneficial rainfall.

The festivities begin late Monday evening and into the overnight hours as scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Iowa before spreading into northern Illinois. Given steep lapse rates any strong thunderstorm that develops will likely pose a threat of severe hail. Where storms actually develop is difficult to pin down, so really across Iowa from the Missouri to the Minnesota border, especially east of I-35, looks like the highest chance for storm development.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains its Level 1 of 5 risk, a Marginal Risk, across the area which really shows uncertainty in where storms may form. Model guidance shows quarter to ping-pong-ball sized hail the biggest threat with the strongest thunderstorms.

Right on Monday's heels comes Tuesday's risk. We are once again watching a risk for scattered thunderstorms especially in the far eastern portions of the area. This looks more widely scattered in nature instead of a widespread rain threat. The heavier, more consistent rain looks to come with stronger storm system Wednesday/Thursday.

GFS - WEDNESDAY NIGHT

EURO - THURSDAY

There are some timing differences between this larger storm system between our operational models the GFS and Euro. Both are pretty similar with area impacted with some of the heaviest totals setting up over Iowa, Missouri and northwest Illinois. Both models are also still showing some signal for the potential of light snow to the north.

This looks more like a late Wednesday through Thursday event overall. Cannot rule out some very light snow on the back side of the system as colder air wraps in, but again not likely to amount to much in terms of total accumulation.

GFS - SATURDAY

EURO - SATURDAY

Keeping the active weather pattern going we are watching yet another storm system late in the week. Similarly there are some timing differences between the operational models, as well as the areas most likely to see the heaviest rainfall. With several systems between now and then we won't get too details here, but just know the weekend may be a bit of a stormy one.

GFS - RAINFALL

EURO - RAINFALL

Looking at the total rainfall from the Euro and GFS through Sunday morning there are a lot of similarities with widespread totals over 2-3". Finally some good, much-needed rainfall in the days ahead ahead of the spring planting season. While the heaviest remains to the east and southeast, we are likely to get in on a lot of action locally as well in the week ahead.

Latest information from the Climate Prediction Center shows pretty good potential for the removal of drought across southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois. This week of rain should do quite a bit to help with that process.

Soil moisture anomalies across the region are quite high as we near the end of the month of March. We really need the moisture and this rainfall is forecast to fall over areas that need it the most. Bring it on!

On a personal note we are gearing up for a historic week on the Florida Space Coast! We are just a few days away from humanity's return to the moon with Artemis II launching midweek. Working around these amazing rockets every day never gets old!

On April 1 (currently planned), four astronauts will take a trip around the moon riding in the Orion Spacecraft which is situated atop the mighty Space Launch System rocket which will set the tone for boots on the surface in the years to come. Artemis II is the equivalent to Apollo 8. The visuals we will get of the lunar surface will be incredible. I am looking forward to supporting the launch this week.

Go NASA. Go Artemis II!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart