ANOTHER 4TH BITES THE DUST

Another 4th of July has come and gone, and the 2025 version will be known for its heat. While it was far from extreme, the untethered sunshine was relentless, sending highs areawide into the range of 90–94 degrees. With dew points close to 70, there was enough humidity to break a good sweat without trying. Unlike the previous night, not a single location saw as much as a drop of rain and outdoor events went off without a hitch.

That was not the case Thursday evening when spotty thunderstorms dumped torrential rains in some of my NW counties that put a serious damper on holiday festivities there. Where you see those dark green, yellow, and orange colors, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches prompted some minor flash flooding.

PRIME TIME TO VISIT TO MY 5 STAR GALENA AIRBNB

My 5-STAR AIRBNB just outside of Galena still has some openings this summer. All of our ratings are 5 star! We take pride in the amenities and the cleanliness. If you book now, we'll take off $200, and we can eliminate AIRBNB fees and additional costs that will save you big bucks. Other discounts apply. Call or text Carolyn at 563-676-3320 for our best deal of summer. See more at https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/

A STEAMY AND POTENTIALLY STORMY SATURDAY...

Rain becomes a concern again later Saturday as a more organized disturbance and its attendant cold front arrives. From the looks of things, there should be plenty of heating before the rains develop. Highs are likely to top out around 88 north to 93 south.

Dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, making for a rather sultry day before any rain relief arrives.

One critical element, storms will have an abundance to work with, is moisture. Available water vapor levels are as highs as 2.39 inches on the HRRR. That is high end, and any thunderstorm that goes up in that environment could easily drop 2 inches of rain or more, and do it quick.

The simulated upper level water vapor product shows the moisture pooling in updrafts ahead of the cold front at 4:00pm.

By 5:00pm, the HRRR simulated radar shows storms entering my counties in eastern Iowa.

The IR satellite shows the cold cloud tops assosicated with thunderstorms at that time. Those 45,000 ft tops will definitely bring some rain cooled air to the surface as the storms travel southeast.

For comparison, the 3k also shows an arc of storms only a couple of hours later, closer to 8:00pm.

As I mentioned, the ingredients are there for significant rains in swaths where the stronger convection ends up developing. Here's what convective allowing models (CAMS) are suggesting for rain totals.

THE 3k NAM

The HRRR

The National Blend of Models (NBM)

The NWS probabilistic precipitation portal product shows odds at 40-60 percent for an inch or more of rain north of I-80

While a few storms could kick up some gusty winds of 50-60 early in the evening, severe weather does not look to be widespread or significant at this point.

Sunday, there is still a chance of a few widely scattered showers or storms with the departing front in the southeast. They look very spotty and most areas should avoid them. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler and dew points a bit lower Sunday, making for a more tolerable day of weather.

With NW flow dominate next week, temperatures should be fairly seasonal, generally near to slightly above normal.

Monday and Tuesday are looking dry, with the possibility of scattered showers and storms returning to the pattern towards Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Summer is in full swing now and the pattern reflects that overall look and feel. Enjoy the rest of your holiday and roll weather...TS