ANYTHING BUT AVERAGE...

Nothing says March like fluctuating temperatures. This whole month has been nothing but wild ups and downs and with 6 days to go we are far from done. On a positive note, we'll lean more towards the warm side of average as opposed to the cold. Here's where things stand.

In the big picture, this March is going down as a blow torch. Below are the months temperature departures through the 23rd. I would say 98-99% of the nation is above average. In fact, it's been so warm that March stands as the warmest on record for the United States. It's likely to end that way too.

This makes it 5 of the last 6 March's with above normal temperatures. March of 2023 readings were near to slightly below normal.

March of 2012 was exceptionally warm here in the Midwest and will remain the warmest on record locally. That March is widely considered one of the most anomalously warm months in U.S. history. The 9-state Midwest region experienced its warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 50.3°F, breaking the 1910 record by nearly 4 degrees.

2012 was also known for the hot dry summer that followed the warm spring. The heat fueled a severe, widespread drought across the Midwestern United States, impacting crops. The 2012 event is frequently cited alongside the 1930s Dust Bowl heat waves due to its comparable intensity and duration. I would consider 2012 as an analog for what could be this summer. What happens with rainfall the next 4-6 weeks will weigh heavily in the eventual outcome. These are highs in St Louis over the period June 27th to July 8th. (10 consecutive days with highs in the range of 100 to 108 degrees)!

Fortunately we are a long way away from temperatures as extreme as those. That said, we will be quite warm for March the next 2 days with highs 15 degrees above normal Wednesday and as much as 25-30 degrees Thursday in the south. Here's what the EURO shows for highs both days.

Wednesday highs:

Thursday highs:

These are the projected departures for Thursday.

Thursday does have some challenges tied to a front that slowly sinks south during the day. Forcing is initially not too impressive along the front but clouds and a few showers should develop in the north in the early afternoon. As the front encounters heating and deeper moisture instability blossoms on the 3k NAM with significant CAPE near I-80 around 4:00pm.

The 3K also shows a supercell composite (indicitive of rotating mesocyclone potential).

The 3K shows strong storms going up from the Quad Cities northeast towards DeKalb at that time. These should be fast movers and will have the potential for all modes of severe, especially hail and wind.

Here you can see helicity tracks on the 3K showing the paths of several supercells.

The Infra-red enhancement on the simulated satellite indicative of storm tops of 40,000 ft.

The severe threat is a bit conditional but certainly is something to watch in later forecast. The timing of the front will be imperative to how much instability can develop and where in the south. Currently SPC has the slight risk enhancement (level 2 of 5) just to the southeast of my local area. I could see this pushed further NW to near the Quad Cities if the front is as slow as the 3k indicates. I could also see an upgrade to enhanced level 3 at some point in some part of Illinois.

Rainfall is also dependant on where storms fire in the southeast. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall totals. The 3k with its more aggressive convection is much higher with amounts in the southeast. Still too early to say for sure.

The EURO

The GFS

THe 3k NAM

Once that front departs Thursday night a large cold Canadian high builds into the upper Midwest. That will provide the region with much cooler conditions Friday. The EURO has highs only in the 40s.

The GFS shows temperatures around 1:00pm Friday that are up to 35 degrees colder in the south. Yikes.

Fortunately, the worst of this cold air retreats quickly and Saturday highs will be back up around 50 and close to 60 by Sunday. That's to be followed by 2-3 more days in the 70s after that. Along with the warmer air next week will come a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We could use them.

Get ready for the roller coaster the next 72 hours. Were on the way up into Thursday before we take the next big dip Friday. Roll weather...TS

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