APRIL "SNOW" SHOWERS, NO FOOLING...
I'm on the road tonight and trying to do this post from a hot spot. Sometimes it works, other not so much. It's a tad frustrating on my end and time consuming so this may be a bit shorter than usual but of course, the quality, content. and effort is still there.
SNOW NORTH, RAIN SOUTH...
A fast moving wave is set to zip across the region Saturday depositing accumulating snow north of I-80 and rain from there south. The system has a nice baroclinic boundary to work on and just enough moisture to bring 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid equivalent. The heaviest amounts are slated for the north where the best forcing and warm advection is slated to occur.
Let focus on the snow first, starting with the winter weather advisory that is in effect for my northernmost counties Saturday morning. As you can see it's the area near and north of HWY 30 that's included in the advisory. Here a wet snow of 2-4 inches is expected. While much of the accumulations will be on grassy and elevated surfaces, snowfall rates should be significant enough for and in or two to accumulate in roads making for some hazardous travel for a brief time in the morning.
The official snowfall forecast from the NWS shows the heaviest amounts closer to HWY 20.
The models echo that theme but many are a little further south with the 2 inch amounts hugging HWY 30. South of that amounts quickly taper off just north of I-80 as rain becomes the dominant precipitation type. Here's a look at the raw model output from Friday night which is pretty consistent. Confidence is moderate to high that totals reach 2-4 inches from HWY 30 north, heaviest closer to HWY 20.
The EURO
The GFS
The HRRR
The NAM 12K
The 3K NAM
The GEM
As mentioned, precipitation totals should be in that 1/4 to 1/2 inch range which is still a needed commodity in many parts of my area. Models shows this for total rainfall.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
The HRRR
The GEM
THE LONG RANGE
In a nutshell, the pattern remains very active the next couple of weeks. A see at least three systems next week all with the potential to produce more rain. On the backside of the third system snow showers and another shot of very chilly are is due in around April 7th. Not gonna be nice! However, I still see much warmer weather returning to the Midwest near and beyond April 10th. It's worth waiting for. If northing else, it's something to look forward to which we're going to need with what coming the next week or so. Have a great weekend and roll weather...TS
LEROY LOWDEN
Steve Gottschalk of Lowden who is a weather folklore expert, 38 year cooperative observer for the NWS, and a contributor to this site, has a furry friend who make forecasts, like the groundhog. Steve sent me this based on Leroy's instincts...
I woke up Leroy Lowden this morning to get his weather prediction for the period of April, May, and June. He looked up at the sky, sniffed the air, and tested the wind. He then made his forecast. April will be cooler and drier. May will have normal temperatures but be drier than usual. Finally, June will be warmer and drier than normal. After he was finished, he stated it was too dang cold and headed back to his hole for some hot chocolate. - Steve Gottschalk
Thanks Steve and congratulations on 38 years of NWS observations!
