AUGUST OUT LIKE A BABY LAMB...
Here we are saying a fond farewell to another August. For all intensive purposes summer is behind us and it felt like it Tuesday. A fresh NW wind, turquoise skies, temperatures in the 70s and low humidity made for a stellar day. Dew points were a big story going from the 70s Monday to the low to mid 50s Tuesday. Check these numbers out at mid-day Tuesday.
In some places in far SE Iowa and NE Missouri dew points were more than 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier!
As you can see in this graphic from the Iowa Mesonet, dew points have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year reaching there peak mid June to early August. The red spikes indicate dew points of 70 or above. Readings that high becoming increasingly difficult to achieve in the weeks ahead as cooler air holds less moisture. The days of muggy sultry weather are coming to an end.
You can see the sprawling high pressure that's brought the quiet dry weather back to the Midwest on the hi-res GOES satellite imagery. Not a cloud in the sky for hundreds of miles.
The chamber of commerce weather continues Wednesday. The only difference is that temperatures will be a bit warmer and winds noticeably lighter. Otherwise, another perfect day is in order as August checks its bags for another year.
September will actually check in feeling more like summer than the last days of August will. As return flow gets established Thursday and Friday a slow increase in temperatures and humidity is expected. Highs both days should reach the mid to upper 80s with a 90 possible in the far south Friday. By then dew points creep into the low to mid 60s ahead of our next cool front. Often times that's a set up for showers and storms but in this case the frontogenetic forcing is weak and instability limited. Thus, only light rain (if any at all) is expected with the passage of the front Friday night and very early Saturday as it drifts into Missouri. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall.
THE NBM (national model blend)
The WPC (Weather Prediction Center)
Outside of a slight chance of a brief shower or sprinkle Saturday afternoon in NW Illinois, the Labor Day holiday weekend looks dry and very pleasant with highs holding on the upper 70s to low 80s. Here's what the NBM blend shows for temperatures in the Quad Cities through Monday. You can see a little cool down after the cold front passes Saturday.
Looking out a ways, the EURO shows little signs of the wet weather its weeklies depict later in September and the first part half of October. 15 day rainfall departures ending September 14th look like this indicating a dry 2 week period coming up.
These are the actual 15 day rain totals which are not much to look at around these parts.
The Climate Prediction Center sees the 8-14 day period this way. Can you say mild and dry?
All right then, we are well on our way to a beautiful day and a holiday weekend. I like the taste of those apples. Make it a good one and roll weather...TS