BRINGING HOME THE BACON...
A cold front came flying through the Midwest early Friday bringing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain totals were nothing to write home about but the chill that came with the front was. Temperatures at noon Friday were only in the upper 50s to mid 60s signifying a drop of 18-20 degrees from 24 hours earlier. A brisk breeze added some chill too, especially in the shade.
Early Saturday the core of the cold is directly overhead meaning our day begins very much on the crisp side, more like October than May. Widespread low 40s are likely with a few upper 30s possible in the cold air drainage basins of the north. The 3k NAM has 38 in Dubuque. I even see a 35 near Decorah where some patchy frost might make an appearance.
The dry air that allowed temperatures to cool so much overnight will also allow a nice recovery Saturday afternoon. Late day highs in the upper 60s NE to low 70s SW are expected, roughly 30 degrees warmer than where the day started. Saturday's sunshine carries over into Sunday and temperatures climb a few more degrees with most spots in the low to mid 70s. Throw in light winds and it looks to be a near perfect ending to the weekend. That's what I call bringing home the bacon!
HOT SUMMER DEALS AT ONE OF THE MOST UNIQUE ACCOMMODATIONS IN THE MIDWEST...
HIGH AND DRY...
Next week the overall pattern at 500mb changes very little as a rex block sets up featuring troughs in the west and east and ridging over the Midwest. That's a very stable pattern with little moisture and uneventful weather. Highs should consistently be in the mid 70s to low 80s right on through Memorial Weekend. Here's what the long range ensembles of the EURO and GFS look like for the Quad Cities. I prefer a compromise solution with a lean towards the slightly cooler GFS solutions leading to the aforementioned mid 70s and low 80s. There could be a day or two where some mid to upper 80s pop-up towards memorial weekend. For now, quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding the amount of warming in that time frame.
The EURO
The GFS
What is not evident on the meteograms is the lack of overall moisture in the pattern. The Gulf of Mexico (our moisture source) is effectively shut down and that keeps humidity in check. Water vapor the next 8-10 days is generally less than 50% of normal. So while we are mild, we certainly won't be muggy.
With dry air in place and high pressure a dominating force, precipitation is likely to be well below normal the rest of the month. This is not just a localized deal as the entire central U.S. is involved in the dry pattern. The EURO shows rainfall departures like this through May 29th.
The GFS increases departures to this going out to June 4th.
For temperature and precipitation combined, the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looks like this. That looks reasonable to me.
The experimental week 3-4 outlook from CPC shows more of the same in the period June 3-16th.
If you are one of those who don't depend on rain, the next few weeks certainly look nice and comfortable. However, the lack of rainfall going into the heat of summer could end up being a growing concern for agricultural interests. We'll be watching the trends closely as we transition into El Nino after a 3 year run of La Nina.
Enjoy the beautiful spring weekend ahead and by all means, roll weather...TS
