FOR THE LOVE OF RAIN...

What our world needs now, is rain sweet rain. We've had to fight and squeeze for every drop we've seen since mid-August. In the grahic below, you can see that in since December 1st, the NWS in Davenport has had only three rain or snow events that have produced 1/2 inch or more. Only one greater than an inch at 1.24 inches.

In Dubuque, the largest single day event is only .92 inches. March has been nicer a bit wetter in Dubuque but unless something big happens tomorrow which I don't see, it will again end up well below normal.

These are the rainfall deficits that have been forged in Iowa Since August 15th, 2025. Most of the SE half of Iowa (including the majority of my area) is 7 to 11 inches below average over that time span. Not where you want to be going into April.

Fortunately, the weather pattern the rest of this week features two more disturbances, (beyond the one that passed overnight) with the potential of producing widespread beneficial rains. Looking at the 500mb jet stream flow into this coming Saturday. You can see a low pressure trough over the west slowly advancing towards the Midwest. In doing so, it has opened the region up for Gulf of Mexico moisture and a couple more short waves that produce the forcing for showers and thunderstorms.

Before we get to those, what's left of last nights storms will continue to be a small threat for additional showers and storms Tuesday in spots. With the front reaching the Quad Cities early in the afternoon, the best chances for any renewed thunderstorms will be over the southeast half of my area. Even better odds shown for far SE Iowa and WC Illinois where instability will be greater. You can see why by way of temperatures at 2:00 in the afternoon. It's 53 in Dubuque and 81 in Keokuk. CAPE will be up to 2,000 j/kg SE of the Quad Cities which could yield a strong storm there along with some pretty good downpours. It will be race to see if the instability can pop something before the front clears the region. I think we miss the majority of anything strong with it more likely into central Illinois.

Tuesday night the front makes it to northern Missouri taking its rain along with it for most of the night. However, the front stalls, and a wave develops along it out in Kansas. The low level jet may punch some rain back into my far southern counties by daybreak Wednesday. Wednesday into Thursday the system creeps out of Kansas into Iowa. An advancing warm front will generate new rounds of showers and storms into Thursday. Wednesday with E/SE winds , periods of rain, and low clouds, it looks to be pretty lousy day. Highs will be generally remain in the 40s across the region.

Wednesday night, as the system draws closer and the low level jet cranks up, locally heavy showers and storms should develop ahead of the northward moving warm front. These look to be elevated so while some hailers are possible, severe weather should not be widespread.

Thursday does have the potential for strong storms depending on the placement of surface features. The triple point should be in play with ample low level shear and moisture. If we get sufficient heating and CAPE (instability), strong storms would be on the table along with some additional downpours. As it stands now, the EURO does show highs reaching the upper 60s north to the mid 70s south. With dew points of 60-64 that could get the job done.

With the cold front passing early in the evening, that leaves the remainder of the night and the majority of the day Friday dry. By wait, we are not done yet. A final wave of energy arrives Friday night with a renewed chance of showers and storms toward evening and into the overnight. Temperatures are shown reaching the mid 60s north to the mid to upper 70s south. That again indicates some healthy instability if timing remains consistent. Once again, a severe weather threat is possible if this all verifies. Friday's projected highs.

Now to the topic of rain. Several days of healthy moisture and a baroclinic boundary nearby, brings a very good chance of widespread 1-2 inch rains. Some spots could see significantly more if training becomes a factor. Between what fell overnight, and what is suggested through Friday night, here are current rainfall depictions through Saturday.

The GFS

The EURO

The National Blend of Models (NBM)

By Saturday, cooler drier air invades the Midwest leaving an Easter Weekend that is cool but dry aside from a few lingering showers early Saturday in the east. Temperatures may start mild Saturday but are expected to fall back into the upper 40s and low 50s in the afternoon. Easter Sunday should feature partial sunshine and highs that are well below normal in the range of 45 north to 50 south. At least we'll avoid the snow that falls Friday and Friday night to our northwest.

For the love of rain, that's where we stand now in this active environment ahead of us. Until next time, roll weather...TS