HAPPY INDEPENDANCE DAY...
Hello everybody and happy 4th of July! This being a holiday, I'm going to keep it short and sweet, which is no big deal anyway with warm uneventful weather on tap.
Looking at the big picture my local area is located in the warm draw of a gathering storm to the west. Sunshine, light southerly winds, and ridging will allow highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90. Adding a little steam will be the dew points which are likely to climb into the mid to upper 60s. It won's take much to work up a sweat. The pool would be a fine place to spend the afternoon! Here's what the EURO shows for maximum temperatures. These are actually pretty typical readings for the 4th of July.
While the conditions are quiet here, natural fireworks will be going off to the west where a strong short wave and its associated cold front act on the instability in its path. Strong to severe storms are expected by evening and SPC has a slight to even enhanced severe risk in places from Western Iowa into Nebraska. These storms will be decaying as they reach my western counties in eastern Iowa by Wednesday morning. For sure there will be no weather issues with fireworks and festivities around my area Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Wednesday gets a bit more complicated as the front and its lift gradually enters the region. It's timing will determine thunderstorm chances, coverage, and intensity. The EURO is several hours slower with the passage of the cold front and thus is warmer. It gets highs into the mid to upper 80s and pools dew points in the low 70s late in the day. That gets the CAPE (instability) necessary for storms to fire around 4 to 5:00pm.
The 3k NAM and GFS being faster would imply storms pop east of the Mississippi keeping a large part of eastern Iowa without storms. Timing is everything and that's definitely going to be the case in this situation. Here's the simulated radar of the 3k NAM as storms go up around 4:00pm from the Quad Cities southeast. A couple of hours could make a big difference but for now I prefer the 3K and GFS with its faster movement and better rain chances near or east of the Mississippi.
For now, SPC thinks the better severe potential would be from SE Iowa into much of Illinois. Again, it all comes down to the speed of the front.
Some of my northern counties which missed out on any meaningful rain over the weekend could sure use a soaker. Here's what models are indicating for rain potential Tuesday night through Wednesday. As is often the case with summertime storms, they can be very much hit and miss. At least we've got a shot at rain but but it sure looks like the area near and east of the Mississippi has the best shot. The EURO is an outlier compared to the U.S. models with its higher and further west rain totals.
The 3k NAM
The Weather Prediction Center Outlook...
Behind the Front pleasant July weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Highs should slip into the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points will dramatically fall into the 40s and 50s. It will be much more comfortable to end the work week.
After that we watch another system approach with the chance of showers and storms over the coming weekend. Hopefully we've broken the spirit of the drought and rain opportunities become more frequent as we've noted in the past few days. Time will tell. Have a fine 4th of July. Take a couple minutes to remember freedom is never free. Many have fought to ensure it and far too many have made the ultimate sacrifice to make this nation the special place that it is. Roll weather...TS
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