HOW SWEET IT IS...
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HOW SWEET IT IS...
I had sunshine on my shoulder and 72 on my thermometer Monday. It was beautiful and I enjoyed every degree of it. Even better, we haven't seen the best of it yet. Before this week is over we may even flirt with the 80 degree mark. Spread the word, spring has finally sprung!
Below is the NWS point forecast output for Davenport, Iowa through Sunday. Notice temperatures stay in the 70s through Saturday. 78 is projected Tuesday, 80 Wednesday, and 78 Thursday. Including Sunday's high of 72 and what's projected below, there is a good chance many of us will see 7 consecutive days with highs of 70 or above!
The last time we had a longer streak of consecutive 70 degree days at the NWS in Davenport was way back in the on September 13th-21st of 2022 (about 6.5 months ago). Also, the high of 74 Monday at the NWS in Davenport was the warmest reading there since November 9th of 2022. Should that site reach 80 as advertised Wednesday, that would be the first 80 readings since September 21 when the high reached 83.
Another nice aspect of the pattern is that the air is dry (a primary reason we are seeing such nice warm-ups during the day. In the table above you can see humidity values Tuesday through Thursday reaching their afternoon minimums in the range of 29-39 percent. Precipitation probabilities through that stretch are at 0 percent. It's no surprise when you look at available water vapor which is around .35" or less in a broad arc from Kansas to Iowa on into Michigan.
At 500mb you can see a disturbance in the gulf with its easterly wind circulation cutting off moisture. Additionally the 500mb ridge is centered over the Midwest causing subsidence or sinking which is not conducive to precipitation even if there was moisture to work with.
Outside of a nice breeze, we are looking at weather the rest of this week that's about as good as it gets for mid-April.
DEAL OF THE DAY...3 NIGHTS FOR THE PRICE OF 2 MEMORIAL WEEKEND IN GALENA
THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH AWAITS YOU
Get the gang together. Kick off summer with a free night at the church, one of the most unique stays in the Midwest. Call Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or email firstname.lastname@example.org CLICK HERE
HOW LONG DOES SPRING LAST?
Of course the big question becomes how long do we have to enjoy this extraordinary weather? Sadly, the end arrives Saturday when a vigorous trough crosses the upper Midwest delivering a sharp cold front. It will manage to channel some meager moisture which could provide us with a shower or thunderstorm late Friday night or Saturday. Overall, the timing looks poor for organized convection and the progressive nature of the front should keep rainfall scattered and light, especially if the EURO verifies.
The GFS is bit more aggressive but its timing is similar to the EURO and I question its generosity. We still have several days to pin down the trends.
We are looking at a sharp cool-down Saturday night and Sunday. Temperature departures are well above normal Saturday morning ahead of a cold front.
They plunge to this Sunday after the passage of the cold front. That's a healthy swing.
Following the change to colder weather the second half of the weekend, it looks as though the pattern will feature fast moving disturbances that bring noticeable temperature swings. However, these disturbances have little time to amplify so moisture return is restricted. I would look for below normal precipitation to continue into next week as well. Over the coming16 days the GFS reflects that idea showing negative rainfall departures across the central third of the nation.
If this dry weather trend continues a couple more weeks it's great for the agricultural community short term with plenty of opportunity for field work. On the other hand, we don't want the dryness to continue into May after crops have been planted. Nothing to panic about yet but something to watch going into the growing season.
That's it for now. Enjoy the sensational week ahead. We've earned it! Roll weather...TS