PROSPECTS FOR STORMS INCREASING

11 hours ago

2 min read

While whether the pattern flips colder remains uncertain at this point headed into early November, what is looking likely is the likely return to more active weather early next week. Given the moisture availability, the unseasonable warmth as well as the strong upper level pattern, severe weather is certainly a watch item in the region.

The European Ensemble (above) shows a pretty active pattern across the Midwest approx. Nov. 2-4. The specific date remains uncertain, but the likelihood of active weather is somewhat high as has its roots to Typhoon Champi we have discussed last week. Rainfall of 0.5" is a pretty good signal at this range.

What will drive this active pattern aloft is a strong upper-level low barreling across the CONUS. This will certainly attempt to break down the weather pattern to more seasonal levels, but looking longer term, I don't know if colder air can sustain itself. This southwest flow aloft will provide the moisture flow and wind shear potentially supportive of storms.

There is a large spread in the models at this time for the storm track. Some as far north as the Twin Cities with others down by Oklahoma City. As confidence increases in the coming days, this will give us some better insight into the areas most impacted by rain, storms as well as unseasonably warmth. Based on the average of the 50 members of the ensemble, the track is actually rather supportive for the Upper Midwest getting the bulk of the stormy weather. We shall see about that.

Based on the model average, temperature anomalies across our area are quite high early next week. We likely push 10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year with strong southerlies. Ahead of the approaching cold front, I don't think it's impossible to think record warmth is at least in the realm of possibility.

MJO just does not want to budge out of Phase 2-3. I discussed last week the potential of Typhoon Champi flipping the script, but we just didn't see it happen. I do think I underestimated the role of this Super El Nino and how it is impacting global weather. I am pulling some analogs and will do a deep dive into El Nino next weekend.