IT AIN'T OVER TIL THE FAT LADY SINGS...
Friday was weird day for weather but in essence, things worked out about as expected. The majority of the storms occurred over the SW half of my area. Severe weather was confined to far SE Iowa and WC Illinois. There, hail golf ball to tennis ball size pounded the area around Plymouth, Illinois in Hancock County. Areas around Burlington, Iowa also saw hail up to golf ball size.
Allice Smith took this picture of the damage the hail did to her garden near Burlington. We feel for you Allice!
Heavy rains also occurred with some 1-2"+ totals in my southern counties. Here's the Doppler estimates through late evening Friday.
Those storms departed the area by late evening but new showers and storms are expected with another piece of energy in the flow by early Saturday. These should bring additional rains to parts of the area, especially Saturday morning before they weaken and pass off to the east.
Then the main show gets underway as far as a more general rain is concerned Saturday night into Monday. So if you missed out on needed rain with the first wave, remember it ain't over until the fat lady sings! For days models have struggled mightily with the evolution of a cut-off low late in the weekend. Placement and timing have been all over the board and varied with each model run. Now we are getting some consistency on those essential parameters and that is bringing some much needed consistency in regards to what's ahead. And that is the formation of an upper air low that is cut-off over southern Iowa. When a system "cuts-off" it does not get the usual push from the westerlies and that means slow movement and a prolonged period of forcing for occasional precipitation. Watch the process unfold in this animation.
A solution like this puts my area on the north side of the surface low where temperatures are cool, skies are cloudy, and rain is likely parts of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday before the pattern breaks down. Here's what models are depicting for total rainfall during the period. The area from I-80 south still seems favored for the heavier amounts.
The EURO:
The 3k NAM
The GFS
Needless to say, there is still some inconsistencies as to where the heavier rains fall but I think by the time Monday is over much of my area will add another 1 to 2" of rain to the bucket (some spots as much as 3"). My hope is the north gets in on the heavier action as that is the part of my area that still needs a good soaking. Unfortunately that is the are where models remain lower on totals. Not much we can do now but let it play out. Fingers crossed!
One thing you can count on is the fact that with little if any sunshine through Monday, high temperatures will be well below normal, generally in the range of 70-75 at a time of year when highs should be in mid 80s.
These are the highs the EURO projects for Sunday. Some spots not even out of the 60s which is the worst case scenario. I would add a few degrees to what you are seeing which still leaves you in the low to perhaps mid 70s.
Here's the 24 hour departures for Sunday. It shows readings around 10-12 below normal but that's because lows and highs are included. The highs would be close to 20 below but the lows would be mild due to the extensive cloud cover running about 5-7 degrees above normal. The average of the two gets you what you see below.
In the end the story of this system is far from written. Periods of showers and storms are expected all the way into Monday. It won't rain all the time but I do not expect to see much sunshine, if any at all. It adds up to a cruddy weekend but so it goes in the Midwest. As they say, into everyone's life a little rain must fall. With that I sign off wishing you a fine weekend despite the conditions. Roll weather...TS
