- Sep 3, 2022

LABOR DAY, THE UNOFFICIAL END TO SUMMER...

Three days ago I put up a post showing how wet the EURO Weeklies were over the 46 day period ending mid October. I emphasized what a change that was from our current pattern and how (if it were to occur), it could have implications on the coming harvest. Of course I stressed 46 days was a lifetime in the weather world and it was far from a sure thing. Just a trend worth watching.

Well, the new run of the weeklies has arrived and it flipped like a gymnast. Here's the side by side comparison of the 46 day rainfall totals and associated departures from August 29th to the latest output September 1st. Rain totals in the Quad Cities went from 11.20 inches to 1.31 in a single run!

Here's the departures from normal. In a nutshell, the model did a 360 degree flip going from wet and soggy to dry as a bone.

Considering the latest trends, at least for the next 14 days, the drier solution makes sense. Here's what the GFS shows for 16 day rainfall departures.

The EURO is in sync with a similar look into mid September.

10 day temperatures also have a a common theme with above normal readings on both the GFS and EURO. Here's the warmth depicted by way of anomalies through September 12th.

The GFS

The EURO

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

All things considered, the biggest challenges the remainder of the holiday weekend are centered around rain chances, especially Saturday. Overnight, scattered showers and storms have made an attempt to fight their way into my northern counties ahead of a slow moving cool front. Guidance is in good agreement that's what's left of these fizzle and die near or north of I-80 by daybreak as they outrun their forcing and better moisture. That should lead to predominately dry conditions into early Saturday afternoon. Eventually the front is likely to turn active again as daytime heating and higher dew points foster instability. Additional showers and storms are shown firing along the boundary, especially in my central and southern counties. These should fester on a scattered basis into evening before diminishing and falling apart by midnight.

The general idea is that the rains will be spotty and short lived where they do develop. There is likely to be many dry hours and some spots may not see any rain at all. If you have outdoor plans I certainly would not cancel them but keep in the back of your mind that at some point its possible you may have to dodge a brief downpour in the late afternoon or evening. This simulated radar at 6:00 Saturday evening shows the hit and miss nature of the storms as they build southeast along the front.

By Sunday and Labor Day the bulk of the forcing and deeper moisture gets thwarted southward into Missouri. For most of us that leads to dry weather both Sunday and Monday. However, there is enough afternoon heating for a few isolated showers or sprinkles to pop up. These look to be few and far between and most spots should avoid them. Here's what modes are indicating for rainfall through Monday. By far the great majority of this falls Saturday.

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The EURO

The GFS

The NBM (national model blend)

As for temperatures, Saturday will be the warmest of the holiday period. All but the far north should reach the low to mid 80s. It will be muggy too with dew points reaching the upper 60s, maybe even 70 in a few spots. However, with the front to the south Sunday and Monday, humidity eases and temperatures cool. Highs both days should be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

As I mentioned above, next week and the whole extended period temperatures will maintain a summer look. Here's what the EURO meteogram shows for readings through September 12th. That's a keeper.