LET'S GET THIS PARTY STARTED...

By this winter's standards we've endured a rare wintry week here in the central Midwest with temperatures well below normal. Here in Dubuque 4 of the past 5 days have been below zero with a -14 and -8 included. The 14 below being the coldest temperature of the winter to date. Finally, the worst of this cold snap is over and it's on to bigger numbers as a warming trend commences. It's time to get this party started.

Before I get to the warmth, here's a reminder of how cold it was Friday morning. Lows across the entire state of Iowa into central Illinois north were sub-zero.

Here's some of the numbers reported in Iowa.

As is usually the case, the colder readings, as much as 15 below around Elkader, correspond with the deepest snow cover near HWY 20 and points north.

MORE WEATHER BELOW...

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WARMER DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN...

While Saturdfay starts cold, a brisk SW wind will initiate a thaw that brings weekend highs into the mid 30s40s in the snow covered areas near and north of HWY 30. South of there mid to upper 40s look good with highs near and especially south of HWY 34 around 50! That's a nice change! The blustery conditions Saturday will take some of the starch out of the warmth.

Dry conditions are with us until Monday night when a northern stream trough crosses the region. It has meager moisture and dynamics so precipitation will be brief and light, 1/10th of an inch or less is indicated. With temperatures Monday in the 40s north and 50s south, precipitptation type will be all rain.

Tuesday and the majority of Wednesday appear dry with highs in the low to mid 40s, well above normal.

The forecast gets far more complicated the middle and end of next week with what becomes of energy ejecting out of the southern stream. The EURO is furthest north taking a well organized system into western Illinois. Generous rains develop in the south late Wednesday afternoon and spread over the rest of the region Wednesday night before departing Thursday morning. The EURO has this for total precipitation.

The GFS is less amplified and completely misses my area with any rain at all. Look at the difference in precip. amounts between it and the EURO above.

I had mentioned yesterday how these type of systems give models fits and this set-up is no exception. We'll await what tomorrow brings but I would not be surprised to see the EURO shift further southeast, closer to the GFS solution.

If that's not enough, the GFS phases a northern stream system with the southern branch of the jet and digs out a healthy trough in the middle of the nation next Friday. It brings some light snow showers in what is a distinctly colder pattern than what the EURO shows. In fact, the GFS brings even colder air later next weekend and its 7 day temperature departures look like this February 12th-19th.

The EURO is far less aggressive with the phasing but does indicate a chance of light snow next Friday and a brief cool-down next weekend before another warm-up after that. It's 7 day temperature departures for the same period as the GFS look like this. Clearly we have fight going on that is impossible to resolve at this distance. Basically it shows volitility in the pattern that leads to low confidence.

At least for now, the Climate Prediction Center is leaning with the warmer idea of the EURO. I'm not convinced that's the way to go and I'm hedging towards the colder side of the ledger. CPC's 8-14 day outlook could end up being a bust..

As always, time will tell. That's all I have for now. Happy trails to you and roll weather...TS