MONDAY'S RAIN TURNS TO SUNSHINE

After a two week stretch of dry and largely above normal temperatures, Monday's front brought storms and rain to most spots along with a cooler brand of weather. Tuesday's highs were back in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points at least 15 degrees lower in the range of 60-65. With a brisk NW wind it actually felt fresh, more like a mid to late August day.

Monday's storms came in two bursts, one in the morning, the other in the afternoon and evening. Tornado watches were issued for many counties but for my area, the majority of the strong storms occurred in a narrow corridor extending from Waterloo to Cedar Rapids. The tornado threat did not materialize but wind gusts reached 70 to 75 mph where the more intense updrafts developed.

Between the two rounds of storms, rains of 1-2 inches (locally higher) were found west of a line from Manchester to just west of the Quad Cities southward into SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

Central Iowa took the brunt of the afternoon storms with severe thunderstorm warnings issued for almost every county in that part of the state. You can see Monday's warning polygons plotted below. Sheffield, Iowa reported a gust of 80 mph.

Another extremely heavy but localized extreme rain event occurred Monday in central Iowa. Amounts from west Des Moines, to Ankeny and up to Huxley (south of Ames) were in the 5-7" plus category. Much of that area had 6-10 inches of rain back in the first couple days of July. That's overkill.

Going back to early June, you can see the southeast two thirds of Iowa has had well above normal rainfall with some areas east of Ames measuring close to 20 inches. A lot of other places are in the 12-15 inch range.

Tuesday was a good drying day with the brisk winds and partly sunny skies. The high pressure responsible for the nicer weather will be in control through the remainder of the week. The resulting NW flow will limit moisture and for the central Midwest, the forecast looks pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through Friday.

As far as rain goes, the EURO looks dry and uneventful through the weekend. Here's what its rainfall forecast looks like into Monday afternoon.

Following the pleasant temperatures that last through Friday, strong signals exist for increased ridging that is shown to build and expand across the area this weekend, extending into much of the next 2 weeks. The EURO has highs locally back in the 90s Sunday through Friday of the coming week

The GFS is similar with the heat Sunday and Monday but backs off briefly for a time the middle of next week before bringing it back in again long range. (It has 106 degrees in the Quad Cities August 6th which looks next to impossible to me. I'm discounting that possibility and you should too).

I guess the big take away is we have some good weather to look forward to into Saturday befor the heat is back on by the end of the weekend. Summer is in full swing. Roll weather...TS.