NO FROST ON THE PUMPKINS YET...
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THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Wednesday's wet weather turned into Thursday's exceptional weather! Clouds cleared and out came the sun giving us a chance to dry out a bit. Yea, I said dry out. We finally found the "on" switch to the rain machine and brought home the bacon. Look at these 7 day rainfall totals. All of my region in the range of 2-5 inches. In many areas that was sorely needed (not so much in WC Illinois).
This larger perspective shows how widespread the rain was.
Here's something we haven't seen forever, rainfall over the week long period that was 2 to 4 times the mean.
The sunshine we enjoyed Thursday afternoon will be interrupted by clouds and perhaps a brief shower or sprinkle Friday. That's due to a trough that swings through the region during the day. It's biggest detriment to rain production is the lack of moisture it has to overcome. Dew points at best look to be in the low to mid 40s which is about 20 degrees lower than with our recent rain system.
Limited as the surface moisture is, it will support considerable cloudiness and perhaps some very light showers or sprinkles, especially in the far southeast. You can see the clouds approaching Thursday night.
As for rain, the hi-res models limit amounts to a few hundredths of an inch at the worst. Some areas may not see any. Bottom line, no soakers with this system. Here's what the 3k NAM shows for totals.
The HRRR is even lighter.
With the disturbance moving steadily east even drier air plows into the Midwest Friday evening. Look at the dew points on the 3K NAM Saturday morning, way down in the 30s (20s in central Iowa).
That leads to a brilliant day Saturday with sunny skies and crisp temperatures. High will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s, perfect football weather. However, with fair skies continuing into Saturday night and the ridge axis close by readings will get a little nippy. The 3K drops lows into the mid-upper 30s in many spots.
That won't be quite cold enough to support frost on any of our pumpkins. However, on the topic of frost, this is the time of year when we typically see our first visit from Jack Frost. This fall freeze report compiled by the NWS in the Quad Cities shows the average date of the first 32 low as October 15th. It's usually a good 7-10 days earlier in my NW counties and about 7 days later over the SE. The earliest Quad City freeze was 30 degrees on September 20, 1956 and 1991. The latest freeze occurred on November 12th. That day it reached 26 in 1946 and 28 in 1982.
Below you can see the median date of the first 32 around the rest of the Midwest.
Getting back to the weekend, we'll close it out with another spectacular day Sunday with more sunshine and warmer temperatures as return flow and southerly winds send highs back into the range of 65-70. It looks like the warmth expands Monday-Tuesday with highs in the 70s both days. Outstanding!
Chances are we will pay for the warmth as the sudden stratospheric warming continues to unfold near the North Pole. There's a strong correlation that at some point the warming will disrupt the circulation surrounding the polar vortex. That will allow the tropospheric jet to buckle unleashing cold air. This process takes time to unfold and the average range is usually 30-60 days which would put the window for cold mid-November to mid-December. The frosty pattern can last 3-6 weeks on average. Below you can see the forecast 10mb temperature anomalies associated with the stratwarm October 28th. The core of the warmth setting very near the North Pole. This will be very interesting to follow in coming days.
Well, I guess that's all I have for now. If you can participate in my fundraiser your financial support would be hugely appreciated. Thanks for your consideration and roll weather...TS
