NOT MUCH LOVE FOR WINTER....
Thursday night I took a look at the latest EURO weeklies, a medium range, seasonal forecast product that goes out 46 days (just past Christmas). I don't do it for specifics as no model is going to accurately portray individual storms at that range. However, it allows guys like me the capacity to pick up on broad based trends such as 500mb jet stream tracks and oscillations. That allows me to anticipate where troughs and ridges are likely to form. If those are accurately identified, it gives me evidence to foresee temperature trends and areas that are likely to be stormy.
If you are one who who "embraces" winter, or snow like me, at first glance you won't be thrilled with what the weeklies delivered. Averaging out the the next 46 days, temperatures are predicted to be well above normal over much of the nation east of the Rockies.
If you want snow you need cold air so that is not the look of a productive period. However, I believe...and the model shows it ( I will spare you specifics) that the warmth is front loaded and much of it comes the next 20 days. The following 26 days look significantly colder. What I'm saying is the weeklies imply the rest of November remains relatively mild and snow free. It's not until late November and early December that a more wintry pattern is suggested.
The 32 day snowfall through December 13th is pretty meager and most of this comes after December 1st.
After December13th, the next 2 weeks out through December 27th, are snowier and you can see the numbers go up.
As I said earlier, you can't get into the specifics too much. This is a blend of 51 solutions so some have more and others less. The clear trend though is for colder and snowier in December, something we have not seen in our Decembers in quite a few years. Bottom line, there is no guarantee, just a trend we'll need to follow.
Short term, what you will notice Friday is colder temperatures. A fast but potent front will usher in a nice drop in readings with highs expected to hold in the 40s. However, it will be a bright day with plenty of sunshine.
Saturday clouds will be on the increase and light rain or drizzle develops as a low pressure springs to life over Iowa. Here it is Saturday evening near Decorah.
The EURO is stronger and wetter with the system and may be a bit overdone on rainfall. It shows this for amounts.
The GFS came in like this. I like a compromise between the two at this point in the game.
Readings should get back into the 50s Saturday before falling into the 40s again Sunday behind the disturbance.
Next week gets off to a cool start but another surge of mild air is due in by Midweek allowing highs to approach 60 Wednesday afternoon. Nothing wrong with that!
Below is a radar image from August 10th as the costliest thunderstorm in U.S. history surges across Iowa. In the image there are many significant things going on. There's a wing of warm advection storms, there's the bow echo, a QLCS signature, a rear inflow jet, and the derecho apex that's producing 140 mph winds on the west side of Cedar Rapids.
In my book Derecho 911, Iowa's Inland Hurricane, I explain all these features and how they came to be. You'll learn why these storms are harder to predict than tornadoes and hurricanes and why they can be just as damaging and deadly. Our special pre-sales promotion continues. For more information or to get your copy click on the look below. Thanks much and ride low...TS!