PATTERN CHANGE EMERGING...

Before we dive into what's coming down the pike, Thursday we completed the trifecta with our third consecutive day with highs of 80 or above. We have had numerous Aprils without an 80 degree day, so to get three in a row and five for the month is quite an accomplishment. Thanks to the warmth and generous rains, vegetation is lush and green, well ahead of schedule. Thank you very much! Here's the temperatures in Davenport through the 23rd.

Based on the trends I'm seeing, we've probably seen our last April 80 this month and it could be a week or two into May before we put the next one up. Take a look at the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center valid May 1-7th. A ridge over the west and trough over the east yields well below normal temperatures in our backyard during the period.

Speaking of the ridge, it looks like this on the EURO May 7th.

It sets up temperature departues of 11-14 degrees below normal locally with the door wide open to remnant cold air still thriving in Canada.

I say below normal tempeatures with fairly high confidence based on the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO). It will be spendning much of the next 2 weeks in either Phase 1 or 2, it might even sneak into Phase 3 the second week of May.

That has significant implications with the temperature correlations of 1, 2, and 3 in late April into May all below normal locally. Take a look.

This may well be a refelction of the developing El Nino which is expected to come on strong in the next 4-8 weeks. In fact, the PNA (Pacific North America) is shown turning strongly positive by early May. The positive phase, often linked to El Niño, brings warmer temperatures to the West and cooler temperatures to East. We get in on the back edge of the cooler air

The GFS is seeing the trend with highs generally in the upper 50s to upper 60s from April 27th to May 9th. Lows are pretty frisky as well! I could do without that.

Anyway, I think the cool stretch is coming. It's just a matter of how cool and how long it all lasts.

This pattern change is being initiated by two active systems. One you can see below that brought showers and some storms to the area overnight. They were most active west of the Mississippi on the Iowa side before weakening as they approached and passed over the river into Illinois.

Behind that, another potent storm comes together Sunday night and Monday that tracks into NC Iowa and Minnesota. The precise track is still a bit in question and is important because it will determine where the mesocale boundaries lay out that end up focusing the heavier rains (some of which will be noteworthy in parts of the region). Here's what models are currently suggesting for rain potential through Monday night.

THe GFS

Readings will be seasonal ahead of the disturbance Friday into Monday, mainly in the mid 60s north to the low to mid 70s south. Tuesday, the pattern change unfolds with cooler temperatures. Any rainfall next week should be light to moderate at best. That is actually a welcome change for now. Roll weather...TS.