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Most of you have tried to toast a marshmallow that ends up with that golden brown exterior...not black and far from white. It's an art and many a marshmallow has gone up in flames. But when you do it up right, it's a great feeling of satisfaction.

It brings to mind the perfectly toasted day we are expecting Wednesday. Chances are we'll see widespread 80s which some saw Tuesday and those that didn't will get the job done today. In general it's the first first time we've reached such lofty levels since back in September. Here's what the upcoming "perfectly roasted" Wednesday looks like on paper. This happens to be for Davenport but very similar conditions are expected all around the region.

DAVENPORT ROASTED TO PERFECTION April 12th-(4:00pm conditions)

Temperature 83

Sky Cover (clouds) 1%

Dew point 42

Relative humidity 24%

Precipitation None

Wind SW-16 mph

As a bonus (shall I say frosting on the marshmallow), the temperature at 8:00am is already 60! Nice start.

Remarkably, places in Minnesota which had 1-2 feet of snow on the ground a few days ago will reach the mid 80s. In parts of SW Minnesota on up to about Minneapolis, a 90 is possible. Look how widespread the warmth is with the HRRR showing these readings at 4:00 Wednesday afternoon.

Many parts of the Midwest will be 18 to 27 degrees above normal. What a flip.

The warmth in the upper Midwest is problematic when you look at the amount of water contained within the snow cover April 10th across Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Much of that region was in the 90th percentile for water equivalent on April 10th.

Comparing this year's SWE to normal: As of April 4th, 2023, the NC River Forecast Center ranked snowpack in the top 1-3 all-time for the date. Here's the water equivalent of the snowpack as of April 11th. 2-6 inches is the general range from the Canadian border south to a line just north of Minneapolis. Much of that will be in the river system by the end of the week as rapid melting continues.

Needless to say with a speedy thaw ongoing the spring snowmelt flood has begun on the northern reaches of the Mississippi and will surge south over the next 2-3 weeks. Significant flooding is anticipated on the Mississippi River from St. Paul south and that's without much in the way of precipitation in the grids. If heavier rains develop in the longer range, major crests are likely through my area. That's going to be closely monitored in the days ahead. As it stands now, moderate flooding should be ongoing at Lock and Dam #3 in Red Wing Minnesota April 18th. The river expected to rise 8 feet there in the next 7 days.



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As you can see below, temperatures remain on the mild side through the remainder of the week and at least the start of Saturday. However, a stout cold front is scheduled to arrive Saturday afternoon putting an abrupt end to our spring fling Sunday and Monday.

Moisture is not overly plentiful but there should be enough ahead of the cold front for at least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms beginning late Friday night and continuing at times Saturday. Differences are readily apparent Saturday night in modeling as the GFS develops a wave and closes off a deep closed upper air low that only slowly spins into Wisconsin Sunday. Not only does that keep wrap around precipitation going into Sunday night, its solution draws enough cold air into the system to change rain to snow (or at least develop a mix) in my NW counties by Sunday.

The EURO develops a wave too but is not as strong with the surface and upper air features which gets the bulk of the system out of the region early Sunday. Precipitation ends before cold enough air arrives for any snow. I'm hesitant to buy into the GFS solution, especially regarding snow so late in the season. However, I have seen 3 consecutive runs which have shown enough consistency in its idea to say it's a possibility but an unlikely one at that.

For a number of reasons lets hope the GFS is wrong, especially with the precipitation it generates which could enhance the flooding threat up north. Here's the difference between the two models over the weekend.

The GFS-much wetter

The EURO-much drier.

After the cold front passes late Saturday a wind driven chill descends on the region Sunday. The GFS with its more aggressive storm holds highs in the 30s and low 40s Sunday. The EURO is more reasonable but plenty fresh, more in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Winds of 35-40 mph look likely creating a noticeable wind chill. Below normal temperatures are shown into early next week before a warming trend the middle of the week.

These temperature ups and downs are actually to be expected in April but nobody wants to see them after a stretch like we are going through now. All you can do is grin and bare it knowing every day is a step closer to summer. I'm ready. Now all I need to do is find the marshmallows! Roll weather...TS

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