RIDE THAT HORSE AS LONG YOU CAN
Monday's temperatures soared into the 70s around the Midwest, well above the norms which are now in the upper 50s to near 60 and sinking on a daily basis. While there were a few showers around early, skies cleared in the afternoon and we ended the day on a very nice note. We're going to ride that horse as long as we can this week before it turns plenty "ornery" this weekend.
By looking at Monday's temperature departures you can clearly see the warmth was focused on the heart of the nation.
With the 500mb storm track in this position Friday, the source region of our air is such that we remain on the warm side of the ledger through the entire week.
The SW flow is also going to tap extensive moisture and from Tuesday afternoon through much of Friday, dew points are expected to be in the 60s. Below you can see dews Wednesday evening on the EURO in the mid 60s, very juicy air for late October.
PWAT's (available water vapor) is another way of measuring moisture. You can see values of 1.5 to 2.00 inches from the Great Lakes all the way back through the Midwest into Texas.
For perspective, those amounts are about 300-350 percent above the norms.
Needless to say, that tongue of deep moisture laid out ahead of a nearly stationary baroclinic boundary creates and environment that is ripe for precipitation. Rounds of rain are expected, instigated by energy (vorticity) that ripples northeast along this natural channel of forcing. These are tough to time. You can see the bright red band depicting the rain expected between now and Sunday evening
Recent trends also suggest the best overall forcing this week is just north of the area. That should keep the heaviest rains just to the north. Even so, the central Midwest will still see some beneficial rains. Below are some of the amounts suggested by individual models and sources through Sunday.
The EURO
The GFS
The Weather Prediction Center Output
The NBM (National Blend of Models).
Suffice it to say there will be periods of rain into Saturday, not continuous but occasional with significant breaks for dry periods. However, with the high moisture levels there are likely to be some downpours and locally heavy rain in spots.
As for temperatures, they look very mild through at least mid-day Friday with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s. You will also notice its a bit muggy too, especially Wednesday and Thursday.
THE PARTY IS OVER THIS WEEKEND...
Finally, the western trough inches east allowing a cold front to enter the area Friday. Winds will turn to the N/NE and with that, the door is open to a noticeable cool down. It won't come in one fell swoop. Instead the initial surge settles in Saturday and the stronger push arrives Sunday night. That sets the table for a cold Halloween day that's accompanied by some ghostly wind chills in the mid to upper 20s. No treats this year.
The other concern is another round of precipitation that arrives late Saturday night or Sunday. There is poor agreement on phasing and just how widespread precipitation will be, if there is any at all. In fact, recent trends seem to indicate the bulk of the rain is forced further south. We should have a better handle on weekend trends in the next 24-48 hours. Assuming trends hold, I don't look for much in the way of precipitation...just colder temperatures.
Sunday night is when the main thrust of cold air arrives and with the EURO showing 850 temps. of -10 to -14 degrees Halloween evening that air will be quite unstable and capable of at least scattered snow flurries or snow showers Halloween and perhaps November 1st as well.
Wind chills the morning of November 1st are shown in the low to mid teens. That will get your attention.
So, as I said earlier, we'll be riding that warm weather bronco until this weekend and then we put her in the stable and hang up the hat. The rodeo is over. Roll weather...TS
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