ROUND TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY

Good evening friends. After some feisty weather Wednesday we have yet another active day of severe weather on Thursday which will likely come in two waves. As of this writing at 10 p.m. Wednesday, a Level 3 of 5 Risk covers the Iowa, Missouri and Illinois Tri-State area with damaging wind gusts, large hail and numerous tornadoes possible. Some may be strong.

The first wave will arrive early Thursday morning with storns capable of strong wind gusts and small hail. I don't want to downplay this initial wave too much, however. Given boundary positioning this may have ample wind shear to work with and this could be a concerning wind event early in the morning. This likely will move into entral Iowa as early as 6 a.m. with the latest guidance taking it into Eastern Iowa and the Quad Cities region between 9-11 a.m.

Following these morning storms the environment likely rapidly destabilizes ahead of the next, more potent wave of storms, in the late afternoon and evening.

Modeling forms these storms in eastern Iowa between 2-5 p.m. before taking them into northern Illinois. Initially, supercells are possible which will present the most significant threat of severe weather including tornadoes. That highest tornado risk is likely in eastern Iowa to northwest Illinois before storms go more upscale, or a big line develops, which will be mainly capable of destructive wind which once again will take aim on the Chicago metro area.

Extreme instability is forecast which will allow robust, rapid thunderstorm development. Storms will quickly go severe. That outflow boundary placement from northeast Iowa and across northern Illinois, as indicated pretty well in the CAPE gradient above, will likely be a focal point for tornadoes if storms can manage to ride along that boundary.

Make sure to have ways to get the latest watches and warnings as storms develop Thursday.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart