SATISFACTION GUARANTEED...FOR NOW
It may not have felt like it Friday but the winds of change are blowing and that means good things weatherwise the next few days. Look at what's happening to our winds. They have returned to the south and again are on the brisk side.
The reason we care is focused on the temperatures to the SW, the direction our air mass will be coming from over the weekend.
Already Friday, readings in western Iowa were more than 20 degrees warmer than just 24 hours earlier.
In my area, we'll go from the 50s Friday to near 70 Saturday, We'll follow that up Easter Sunday with a hopping good day that will see sunshine and highs that range from 70 to 75 degrees. Another nice facet of the day will be the winds. Holding in the range of 10-15 that will really allow the warmth to come through.
By all indications the mild air will remain intact into Tuesday, maybe even Wednesday, especially in the south. What will change by Monday is moisture. Available water vapor will spike with PWAT values increasing to more than an inch Tuesday.
With that level of moisture and highs in the 70s we'll get our first taste of springlike humidity early in the week. Aside from that, we'll begin to increase chances of showers and thunderstorms. The first crack comes late Sunday night or early Monday as moisture and warm air advection act as a trigger. These still appear pretty scattered and more focused on the north. Not everybody will see rain.
Tuesday through Wednesday showers and storms become more numerous and depending on how frontal boundaries evolve, some active storms and potentially heavy rains are in the cards. The EURO has this for total rain from occasional showers and storms Monday-Thursday. The heaviest most widespread rain is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
The GFS indicates this for the same period.
The other issue I'm watching is a backdoor cold front that will descend on the area from the Great Lakes. As blocking develops in Canada and high pressure builds to the north, winds will back to the east allowing a lake enhanced cold front to develop. As the east winds flow over the cold waters of Lake Michigan they are likely to dramatically knock down temperatures starting in the north late Wednesday. The south may be lucky enough to keep the warmth going into the evening.
Unfortunately, there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength and depth of the cold air but the potential exists for the central Midwest to be back in the grips of chilly damp weather by next Thursday. The 18Z EURO showd this for mid-day temperatures Thursday. That's a nasty look.
However, on a positive note, the 0Z run of the EURO just 6 hours later has backed off considerably. It now shows this for highs next Thursday.
On the other hand, the 0Z GFS is still plenty fresh showing highs Thursday that look like this.
In my experience, backdoor fronts can be a real problem from now into May (or until the waters of Lake Michigan warm). Models are known to have issues resolving lake enhanced cold air intrusions and more times than not, the colder solutions seem to win out, especially early in spring. I would plan on much cooler conditions by next Thursday but that's not etched in stone. We need a day or two more to get this ironed out.
With that in mind, the weekend is here and it looks mighty sweet. Here's to a fine looking Easter. Enjoy and roll weather...TS